October 26, 2012 11:58 AM
The Score – at least as the public polls predict
The following are survey results from media-related polling organizations, Gallup and PEW. [WW tends to find them more consistently reliable. This is not to say that all non-media sources are not reliable. Polls like Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republican are examples of non-media surveys that WW finds to be reliable.]And, since this is the season when the focus should be on “likely voters,” registered voter numbers are listed separately. Certain surveys test both registered and likely voters in the same survey, and they are listed in the separate sections. [* ABC/WP numbers are based on four-day rolling average. ** Gallup numbers are based on seven-day rolling average.]
| Survey | Last Date | Obama | Romney |
| Likely Voters | |||
| ABC/WP* | 10/21-24 | 47 | 50 |
| Gallup | 10/18-24 | 47 | 50 |
| ABC/WP* | 10/19-23 | 48 | 49 |
| AP/GfK | 10/19-23 | 45 | 47 |
| Gallup | 10/17-23 | 47 | 50 |
| 10/22 | 3rd Debate – 59.2 million viewers | ||
| ABC/WP* | 10/18-22 | 48 | 49 (48.44 to 48.51) |
| Gallup | 10/16-22 | 46 | 51 |
| ABC/WP* | 10/18-21 | 49 | 48 |
| CBS | 10/17-20 | 48 | 46 |
| NBC/WSJ | 10/17-20 | 47 | 47 |
| Gallup** | 10/14-20 | 45 | 52 |
| 10/16 | 2nd Debate – 65.6 million viewers | ||
| ABC/WP | 10/10-13 | 49 | 46 |
| Gallup | 10/8-15 | 46 | 50 |
| 10/11 | V.P. Debate | ||
| Gallup | 10/4-9 | 47 | 48 |
| FOX | 10/7-9 | 45 | 46 |
| Gallup | 10/3-9 | 48 | 48 |
| PEW* | 10/4-7 | 45 | 49 |
| 10/3 | 1st Debate – 67.2 million viewers | ||
| CNN/ORG | 9/30 | 50 | 47 |
| NBC/WSJ | 9/30 | 49 | 46 |
| ABC/WP | 9/29 | 49 | 47 |
| FOX News | 9/26 | 48 | 43 |
| NBC/WSJ | 9/16 | 50 | 45 |
| PEW | 9/16 | 51 | 43 |
| CBS/NYT | 9/12 | 49 | 46 |
| FOX News | 9/11 | 48 | 43 |
| ABC/WP | 9/9 | 49 | 48 |
| CNN/ORC | 9/9 | 52 | 46 |
| CNN/ORC | 9/3 | 48 | 48 |
| The Conventions | |||
| CNN/ORG | 8/23 | 47 | 47 LV |
| FOX News | 8/21 | 44 | 45 LV |
| ***** | |||
| Registered Voters | |||
| Gallup | 10/18-24 | 48 | 47 |
| Gallup | 10/17-23 | 48 | 47 |
| 10/22 | 3rd Debate | ||
| NBC/WSJ | 10/17-20 | 49 | 44 |
| Gallup | 10/14-20 | 46 | 49 |
| 10/16 | 2nd Debate | ||
| ABC/WP | 10/10-13 | 50 | 42 |
| Gallup | 10/8-15 | 49 | 47 |
| 10/11 | V.P. Debate | ||
| Gallup | 10/4-10 | 48 | 46 |
| Gallup | 10/3-9 | 50 | 45 |
| PEW | 10/4-7 | 46 | 46 |
| Gallup | 10/7 | 50 | 45 |
| 10/3 | 1st Debate | ||
| NBC/WSJ | 9/30 | 51 | 44 |
| Gallup | 9/17 | 47 | 46 |
| NBC/WSJ | 9/16 | 50 | 44 |
| PEW | 9/16 | 51 | 42 |
| Gallup | 9/11 | 50 | 43 |
| The Conventions | |||
| CBS News | 8/26 | 46 | 45 RV |
| ABC/WP | 8/25 | 46 | 47 RV |
