November 30, 2012 11:56 AM
The House of Representatives
Democratic Congressional candidates as a group received 5.29% of the votes cast for that office, 675,000 more votes than Republican Congressional candidates as a group. Democrats received 58,268,527 votes, while Republicans garnered 57,593,519 votes. Yet the Republicans retained a 33-member margin in that body.52.8% of eligible voters cast votes for Congress compared to 58.4% who cast votes for President.
27 incumbent Members of the House were defeated in 2012; 10 Democrats and 17 Republicans.
| Dem | Rep | Ind | Vac | |
| 100th Congress 1987-88 | 258 | 177 | ||
| 101st Congress 1989-90 | 260 | 175 | ||
| 102nd Congress 1991-92 | 267 | 167 | 1 | |
| 103rd Congress 1993-94 | 176 | 1 | ||
| 104th Congress 1995-96 | 230 | 1 | ||
| 105th Congress 1997-98 | 206 | 228 | 1 | |
| 106th Congress 1999-2000 | 211 | 223 | 1 | |
| 107th Congress 2001-02 | 221 | 2 | ||
| 108th Congress 2003-04 | 204 | 229 | 1 | 1 |
| 109th Congress 2005-06 | 44 | 55 | 1 | |
| 110th Congress 2007-08 | 49 | 49 | ||
| 111th Congress 2009-10 | 56 | 42 | ||
| 112th Congress 2011-12 | 51 | 47 | ||
| 113th Congress 2013-14 | 53 | 45 |
2014
Democrats would have to pick up 17 seats in the 2014 election in order to become the majority Party. That is not a huge number, but it is a pretty high hill.The first hurdle is finding the seats, given the redistricting that took place after the 2010 census.
While history does not have to be determinative, other than in 1998, the Party controlling the White House has lost seats in the mid-term election of a President’s second term in office in every election since 1918.
To pursue this question in greater detail bring up Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight article of November 16, 2012.
