Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

November 30, 2012 11:57 AM

The U.S. Senate

About New Hampshire

The residents of New Hampshire, seeing the future, have elected women to the offices of Governor, both U.S. Senate and both U.S. House seats.


The U.S. Senate

  • Democrats 53
  • Republicans 44
  • Independents 2 (caucus Dem)
If there was a surprise on election night 2012 it was in the U.S. Senate elections. I can’t think of a non-partisan commentator or pundit who predicted that the Democrats would pick up seats. Optimistic assessments suggested a status quo Senate or a Senate with one less Democrat.

The Indiana and Missouri Democratic victories, which early on were thought to be in the Republican column, were certainly affected by the insensitive language of the male Republican nominees. Romney won both States with ease, 54% to 44%.

The two surprise victories were in North Dakota and Montana. Even Nate Silver got it wrong.

In Montana, Jon Tester was the Democratic incumbent, but the race was touch and go from the outset. Romney won the State 55% to 42%.

The biggest surprise was North Dakota. Rick Berg led throughout the campaign. His average lead in the polls from mid-October was 8.5% points. But Heidi Heitkamp pulled it off, winning a 1% point victory.



Five of the 33 Senate seats that were up in 2012 changed their “political complexion.” One Democratic seat (Nebraska) flipped to Republican. One Independent seat (Conn) flipped to Democratic. One Republican seat (Maine) flipped to Independent. Two Republican seats (Indiana & Mass) flipped to Democratic.



  Dem Rep Ind
100th Congress 1987-88 55 45  
101st Congress 1989-90 55 45  
102nd Congress 1991-92 56 44  
103rd Congress 1993-94 57 43  
104th Congress 1995-96 48 52  
105th Congress 1997-98 45 55  
106th Congress 1999-2000 45 55*  
107th Congress 2001-02 50 50*  
108th Congress 2003-04 48 51 1
109th Congress 2005-06 44 55 1
110th Congress 2007-08 49 49 2
111th Congress 2009-10 56 42 2
112th Congress 2011-12 51 47 2
113th Congress 2013-14 53 45  




There are 33 Senate seats up in 2014, and again the Democrats have a substantially larger number of seats to defend (20) then do the Republicans (13).

Of the 13 seats held by Republicans, 12 of them are in Republican States, in none of which did Obama garner more than 45.5% of the vote. The 13th is Maine, a state that Obama won.

The most important question for Republicans now is whether they can pull together to nominate candidates who are more in tune with the broader electorate than the candidates they selected for Missouri and Indiana. At least at this time, a quick look suggests there are a number of States in which nomination challenges from the right could materialize.

Finally, Romney won 7 of the States which have current Democratic Senators who will be on the ballot in 2014.



Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) is now the Senator who has received the most votes in a single election. At last count – with some ballots yet to be counted, her total reached 7,297,972 in this most recent election. The previous record holder was Barbara Boxer (D-CA).



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