Turnout, Decision Time, and Demography Of The 2012 Electorate

Going into the 2012 election the voting age population of the United States was 240,926,957. The voting eligible population was 219,296,589. Based on votes cast as counted through November 29, 2012, (127,866,731 votes) turnout was 58.4%. This is the lowest since the 2000 election. Turnout of eligibles in 2008 was 63% and in 2004 it was 60.6%.

The most striking change in the timing of when voters decided for whom to vote between 2008 and 2012 came from the number who decided before Labor Day. In 2008, 52% of the ultimate electorate made their decision as to whom they would support prior to Labor Day. In 2012, that number was 69%. This change was likely driven by the fact that there was an incumbent in 2012.

Those who decided in September 2008 (14%) picked Obama by 9% points. However, those who decided in September 2012 (9%) went for Romney by 8% points. (It may be that those who remember deciding in September include the 1st debate in their memory of September. It was on October 3rd.)

General belief has been that late deciders go against the incumbent. That did not happen in 2012. Obama won among that 9% of the voters who decided in the last week, and among the 3% of that number who decided on election day.

In 2008, 10% of the voters decided during the last week. Among the 6% who decided in the last week, but before election day, McCain won by 3 points. Obama won by 5 points among those who decided on election day.

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Limiting the Vote

While most efforts leading up to elections are designed to increase the size of the vote, there is always some effort made through devices, legal and otherwise, to limit the vote.

In this particular election, as in most elections, most of the voter limitation efforts were aimed at reducing turnout among minorities, the elderly, and voters from the lower economic strata of the community.

While there were the usual odd groups that attempted to limit the vote by publicizing the wrong times and locations for voting, most of the organized efforts came in the form of the passage of various laws.

The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law reported that 25 new laws and two executive actions were adopted in 19 States. Most of these efforts were led by Republican Governors and legislatures.

Law suits were brought against the majority of the most onerous of these laws, and generally the courts ordered that the laws not be implemented. However, in any number of cases, judicial action appears to have been premised on the passage of these laws too close to the election; i.e., there was not enough time for potential voters to take the actions necessary to avoid disqualification of their votes. These laws are still on the books and there is no reason to assume that efforts will not be made to enforce them in 2014 and going forward.

Other efforts involved making all voting more difficult. 29 States now have early voting. Something approaching 35% of the vote nationwide may well have occurred before the actual election day, if one includes absentee voting in early voting. But here too there were efforts made to make it more difficult to vote early than in the past. In Florida, the Governor limited the number of early voting dates, with particular emphasis on Sunday voting, a day of which many minority voters and working class voters have taken advantage in the past.

Yet another problem is the quantity and quality of the voting facilities. Voting line waits of up to seven hours were reported. Again, Florida seemed to be ground zero. This problem too makes life more difficult for the average working person.

In 2012 enough clamor was raised about various efforts to limit voting that it appears to have become a tool used by those trying to increase the vote. That is, the argument was made that efforts were being made to deny them the vote as a device to get them to wait the extra hour to take the extra action to make sure their vote was counted.

Taken as a whole, experts say that the problem nationwide does not appear to have been worse in 2012 than in past years. That does not mean that it is not a problem with which the country needs to deal.

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The Exit Poll

Selected data from the 1992 through 2012 Presidential national exit polls is set out in the chart below.

The percentage of men (47%) and of women (53%) in America is the same today as it was in 1992. 55% of the women voted for Obama, while 52% of the men voted for Romney.

Obama lost to Romney among those 40 years of age and older, but he won those between the ages of 18 and 39 years, including 60% of those between 18 and 29 years of age.

In 1992, 87% of the electorate was white and 13% was non-white. Today the white portion of the electorate is 72% and the non-white portion is 28%. The increase in Latino participation has grown from 2% to 10%; African-American participation grew from 8% to 13%.

Romney won 59% of the white vote, while Obama won 93% of the African- American vote, 71% of the Latino vote, and 73% of the Asian vote.

While income data suggests a substantial change in the economic status of the electorate, these changes are, to some extent, misleading. $1 in 1992 is worth $1.65 in 2012. Thus $50,000 in 1992 is the equivalent of $82,000 in 2012.

Throughout the election season there was considerable angst from Republicans because most national surveys had a sample which included 4-7% more Democrats than Republicans. Most pollsters do not weight for political affiliation, so the spread they were reporting is what they found. The exit poll showed a +6 spread for Democrats. As recently as 2004 the election day sample showed equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans.

Married people (60% of the electorate) supported Romney by 56%, while those who are unmarried gave 62% of their vote to Obama. Unmarried women (23% of the electorate) gave 67% of their vote to Obama, as did unmarried men who gave him 56% of their vote.

Demographic Changes from the 1992 Election to the 2012 election:

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