The Congress

75% of Americans would vote for term limits for the members of both Houses of Congress. This includes 82% of Republicans, 65% of Democrats, and 79% of Independents. [Gallup]

81% disapprove of the job that the Congress is doing. It has been in this range since August 2011. The only other time since 1994 that the disapproval rating has approached this level is in June 2008, when 79% expressed their disapproval. [NBC/WSJ 1/13]

In December 54% of Americans rated the honesty and ethical standards of members of Congress as Low/Very Low. 10% rated them as having High/Very High standards. 49% of Americans rated U.S. Senators as having Low/Very low standards, with 14% saying their standards are High/Very High. [Gallup]

The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 53
• Republicans 45
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

There are 35 Senate seats up in 2014, and again the Democrats have a substantially larger number of seats to defend (21) than do the Republicans (14).

---

If one includes Independents who caucus with the Democrats, the current Democratic caucus of 55 Senators is the largest that caucus has been since the 103rd Congress 1993-94, with the exception of 2009-10 Congress.

---

There is little prospect that any of the 14 Republican seats will flip to Democratic in 2014. 13 of these States were won by Romney in 2012 by numbers ranging from 53.4% to 69.3%. Maine was the exception, with Obama winning with 56% of the vote, but the current Republican incumbent Susan Collins is quite popular.

The Democrats have a somewhat rockier path to holding all of their current seats that are up in 2014. Obama won all of the 8 States that are currently rated as Safe Democrat, by numbers ranging from 50.8% to 62.7%. However, when it comes to the 9 States that are rated Leaning Democrat, the recent history is less attractive. Only 4 of those States – Colorado, Hawaii, New Hampshire, and Minnesota – were won by Obama, by margins running from 51.2% to 70.6%. The other 5 – Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, and North Carolina – were won by Romney, with margins ranging from 50.6% to 60.5%.

Of the 4 States now rated as Toss-Ups, 3 have current Democrat incumbents who have chosen to retire, Tom Harkin in Iowa, John Kerry in Massachusetts, and Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia. The current Democratic incumbent in South Dakota, Tim Johnson, is running for re-election ” at this time.” Obama won Iowa and Massachusetts with 52.1% and 60.8% respectively. Romney won South Dakota with 57.9% of the vote and West Virginia with 62.3% of the vote.

At this time, it appears that Massachusetts will stay in Democratic hands, with Ed Markey being the likely Democratic nominee and ultimate victor. West Virginia is more likely than not to end up in Republican hands. According to Nate Silver, the outcome in Iowa may well depend on the name and nature of the Republican candidate, i.e , the more conservative the Republican the better are Democratic prospects to hold the seat. Not much can be said about South Dakota until Tim Johnson decides whether he is running for re-election. To date there are no signs that he is not planning to run. Whether he runs or not, this race is likely to be a real toss up.

---

The House of Representatives

234 Republicans and 201 Democrats were elected to the House of Representatives in 2012. This represents a switch of 8 seats to the Democrats.

27 incumbent Members of the House were defeated in 2012; 10 Democrats and 17 Republicans.

Democratic Congressional candidates as a group received 59,645,387 of the votes cast (49.16%) for that office, while Republican candidates received 58, 283, 036 (48.03%), a difference of 1,362,351 (1.13%) votes. Other Party candidates received 3,413,981 (2.82%). The final result was 234 Republican seats and 201 Democratic seats. This is only the second time since World War II that the Party getting the most votes did not end up with a majority of the seats in the House.

9.4% of the voters who cast a vote for President in 2012 did not cast a vote in the House race contests.

---

There were 44 Congressional races in 2012 in which the winning candidate garnered less than 53.0% of the vote. In 35 of these races, the winning margin was less than 6% of the vote.

---

According to Sabato’s Crystal Ball only 9 of the current 201 Democratic seats appear to have been won by Romney in 2012. Only 16 of the 234 Republican seats appear to have been won by Obama.

---

The U.S. House Of Representatives

• Republicans 233
• Democrats 200
• Vacancies 2

As it has for a very long time, WW regularly reprints and relies on the analysis of House Races published by the “Cook Political Report.”

Return to Home Page