The Congress

80% disapprove of the job that the Congress is doing. This is only slightly lower than the all-time high disapproval of Congress recorded in January 2012, when disapproval hit a high 84%. [WP/ABC 3/13] This level of disapproval is confirmed in an early March Gallup survey, which found 83% expressing disapproval.

62% of Americans disapprove of the job being done by Democrats in Congress. 72% disapprove of the job being done by Republicans in Congress.

When asked for their view of Congress these days, 56% believe “the political system can work fine, it’s the members that are the problem.” In an unusual level of agreement, 58% of Republicans, 57% of Democrats, and 56% of Independents hold that view. [PEW 1/13]

The polarization of the House and Senate are all but complete. The chart below shows the number of Members of the House and Senate whose vote rating puts them between the most liberal Republican and the most Conservative Democrat.

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The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 53
• Republicans 45
• Independents 2 (caucus Dem)

The question of the hour is whether Republicans can win six Senate seats in the 2014 election and regain control of the Senate. On today’s facts it is not likely, but it is a long time until November 2014. Mid-term elections tend to favor the Party that does not hold the Presidency. Most of the seats up this year were last contested in 2008, a strong Democratic year in which Obama and his campaign provided a lot of wind at the back of Democratic candidates.

Six of the current Democratic Senators are not running for re-election. Two Republican Senators are not standing for re-election.

The impact of the fully engaged Super PACs and related organizations have not been felt in a mid-term election as yet.

It remains to be seen whether the Republican Party can avoid nominating out-of-step candidates. That phenomenon likely caused the loss of one Senate election in 2012, and probably two.

There are 35 Senate seats up in 2014, and once again the Democrats have a substantially larger number of seats to defend (21) than do the Republicans (14).

In Nate Silver’s initial review of the races the Democrats end up holding the Senate with 50.4% of the seats.

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* Italics denotes the retirement of a current member.

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It is worth remembering that U.S. Senators represent the people within a geographic boundary, but do not represent a proportional number of Americans, as do Members of the House of Representatives.

62 Senators represent roughly one-fourth of the nation’s population

• 30 of the Senators are Republicans
• 30 of the Senators are Democrats
• 2 of the Senators are Independents

32 Senators represent roughly half of the nation’s population

• 13 of the Senators are Republicans
• 19 of the Senators are Democrats

6 Senators represent one-quarter of the nation’s population

• 2 of the Senators are Republican
• 4 of the Senators are Democrats

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The House of Representatives

Of course, the Democrats are talking about taking back the House. All it takes is holding all of their current seats and taking back 17 from the Republicans.

There have been swings in House elections large enough to climb the hill facing the Democrats; however, those large swings have all benefited the Party not in the White House.

There has been no election in more than 150 years in which the Party controlling the White House gained even as many as 10 seats.

President Obama seems determined to help in House elections well beyond anything he has done in the past. It remains to be seen how popular he will be in the fall of 2014, and whether whatever his level of popularity can be transferred to various House candidates around the country.

The U.S. House of Representatives

• Republicans 233
• Democrats 200
• Vacancies 2

As it has for a very long time, WW regularly reprints and relies on the analysis of House Races published by the “Cook Political Report.”

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