State of the Nation

The NBC/WSJ [6/2/13] found that 59%of Americans believe that things are on the wrong track in this country. The same result was reported by the CBS/NYT [6/4/13] .

24% are satisfied with the way things are going in this country. This is down from the 33% recorded in November 2012. [Gallup 4/13]

For the month of May 2013, “unemployment” stands at 7.6%, up slightly from April 2013, when the rate was 7.5%. However, this number does not include people who are working part-time, but want full-time employment. Nor does it include those who have not looked for work in the last four weeks. When those folks are added, we get an unemployed/underemployed number that is 13.8% for May 2013. [U.S. BLS]

Following is the May data for 2009 – 2013.



From mid- 2009 until June 2013, at least 60% of Americans have been at least somewhat concerned that they or someone in their family might be out of work and looking for a job within the next year. The number having that view rose to 66% in mid-2012, but returned to 61% this month. [CBS/NYT 6/13]

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During the period 2009-2011, the first two years of the recovery, wealth inequality in America grew. The wealthiest 7% saw their net household net worth grow by 28%, and their aggregate share of total household wealth grow from 56% to 63%. The 93% in the lowest net household income category saw their net worth decline by 4%.

These changes were likely driven by the fact that wealthier households have their assets “concentrated” in stocks and bonds, which rallied during this period, while “less affluent” households have more of their wealth in the value of their homes. That market did not rally during this period. [Pew]

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Women continue to earn less than men and there has not been much change in recent years. On average, women earn 77cents for every $1 earned by a man. The disparity ranges from D.C., where women earn 90 cents for every dollar earned by a man, to Wyoming, where women earn 67 cents for every $1 earned by a man. [AARP 6/13]

The following are examples of disparities in pay:

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16% of those aged 18-29 do not have credit cards, up from 8% in 2008.

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There are 41,810 zip codes in the United States. California has the most zip codes, with 2,602m and Rhode Island has the fewest, with 90 zip codes. [AARP 6/13]

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In May and June, Gallup reported the following:

48% of small businesses think the Affordable Care Act is bad for them

Only 13% of small business owners think the Act will improve the quality of healthcare

The average age U.S. retirees say they actually retired is now age 61, up from age 59 in 2003.

No surprise, as people get older they are increasingly worried about whether they will have enough money for retirement. 72% of those aged 50-64; 68% of those aged 30-49; and 52% of those aged 18-29 share this view.

46% say they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement, while an equal number -- 47% -- say they will not have sufficient funds. Ten years ago, 59% thought they would have sufficient funds in retirement.

35% of adult workers believe they will have to continue working past retirement , while 40% say that they will do so as a matter of choice.

A work-sponsored pension plan will be a major source of retirement income for 55% of households that make $50,000 or more a year, while only 27% of those making less than that amount say they can rely on such pensions. Of those in the lower income group, 73%, expect to rely on Social Security.

Only 52% of U.S. adults have money invested in stocks. 65% claimed stock ownership in 2007.

23% say they have confidence in newspapers. This is down from a high of 51% in 1979.

72% think that “the state of moral values” in the country is getting worse, and 77% believe that religion is losing its influence on American life.

Nonwhites have more confidence than whites in the Presidency (54%- 29%), Congress (21% to 8%), and the U.S. Supreme Court (40% to 34%).

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Americans are evenly divided, 48% to 48%, on whether government in general should do more, or whether it is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.

31% are generally optimistic about our system of government and how well it works. Other than in early 2011, this is the lowest percentage of Americans to hold this positive view in surveys going back to 1974.

29% are pessimistic about the government and how it works. This is the largest percentage recorded for the same survey question going back to 1974. [NBC/WSJ 6/13]

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Only 42% of those in the United States see climate change as a major threat to the country. Most of the rest of the world sees it differently, including our neighbors to the north. 54% of Canadians, 54% of Europeans, 54% of Africans, 56% of Asian/Pacificers, and 65% of those in Latin America believe that climate change is a major threat to their countries. [Pew 6/13]

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In a survey taken two weeks before the Supreme Court decisions on the Voting Rights Act and same gender marriage, the job being done by the Supreme Court was disapproved by 48% of Americans. The last time disapproval was this high was in June 2005.

Approval of the Court is also 48%. As recently as one year ago, approval stood at 53%, disapproval at 43%.

The only time since 2000 in which approval did not exceed disapproval was also in 2005. [CNN/ORG 6/13]

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A Big Step For Equality

Earlier this week, the U.S. Supreme court handed down two decisions that represent another step forward for marriage equality.

First, the Court declared as unconstitutional Section 3 of the Defense of Marriage Act. (Section 2 of the Act was not challenged. It provides that States that do not recognize same gender marriage do not have to recognize such marriages even though they are legal in another State.)

The net result of this decision is that same gender couples who are married under the laws of particular States are entitled to receive the same benefits that opposite gender couples receive.

There are some 1138 places in Federal law where one form of right, benefit, or spousal protection is available to married people. (About a dozen of these benefits are particularly important.) However, because certain rights are based on the place where a marriage is celebrated and others are based on the domicile of the persons seeking the benefits, not all of these benefits will be available to all married same gender couples.

If a same gender couple is married in Massachusetts and continues to live there, all of the benefits will be available to them. However, if that same couple, after being married in Massachusetts moves to Pennsylvania, which does not permit same gender marriage, certain of the benefits will not be available to them.

One such benefit that is based on domicile is spousal benefits under the Social Security Act. Another example relates to the filing of joint Federal tax returns. A same gender couple that is married in a State that recognizes gay marriage can file a joint return. If that same couple moves to a State that does not recognize their marriage they are not able to file a joint return.

It will take a while before the Administration is able to sort out which benefits fall into which class. That effort has begun.

The second decision was rendered in the so-called Prop 8 case. In California, same gender marriage had been stopped by a public referendum. That referendum was challenged in Federal court. The Federal District Court threw out the result of the referendum.

The State government chose not to appeal the District Court decision. The Supreme Court ruled that the parties who brought the law suit, and who had prevailed at the appellate court level, did not have standing to bring the suit. Chief Justice Roberts wrote, as part of the decision in that case, “We have never before upheld the standing of a private party to defend the constitutionality of a state statute when state officials have chosen not to....We decline to do so for the first time here.”

Same gender marriages will resume shortly in California. The decision does not affect the laws of any other State.

Thirteen States and the District of Columbia have legalized same gender marriages. Ten States allow civil unions/partnerships. Thirty-five States ban same gender marriages, including some States which do permit civil unions.

[A note: Periodically there is an example of how the effort and energy of a single person can make a great difference. The Prop 8 case is one such example. While the effort to overturn Prop 8 involved many people, including some outstanding lawyers, one person started the effort that produced this result. That person is Chad Griffin, who at that time was living in California, and subsequently became the President of the Human Rights Campaign. ]

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Increasingly, the States are in Charge

Real management of the country is moving from Washington, D.C. to the States and various local jurisdictions. The inability of the Congress to get anything of consequence done, and the increasing disfunction of the Executive Branch, have led Americans to the conclusion that they cannot look to the Federal government to solve the problems they face in their daily lives.

54% of Americans believe that the Federal government has too much power, while only 8% say it has too little. [Gallup 5/13]

78% think they can trust the government in Washington only some of the time. [NYT/CBS 6/13]

In 2001, at the time of 9/11, 82% of Americans had a favorable view of the Federal government. Today only 28% express a favorable view.

A year ago 51% of Democrats had a favorable view of the Federal government. Today that number has dropped to 41%, the first time it has dropped below 50% during Obama’s tenure. Among Independents, 27% have a favorable view of the Federal government; and among Republicans, only 13% have a favorable view of the Federal government.

On the other hand, 57% of Republicans, 59% of Independents, and 56% of Democrats have a favorable view of State government; and 67% of Democrats, 63% of Republicans, and 60% of Independents have a favorable view of local government.

It’s no surprise that Republicans tend to be more positive about State government where Republicans are in total control, and Democrats are more positive about State government where their kindred souls are in control. [Pew 4/13]

At the present time, Republicans dominate State governments. They control the governor’s office in 30 States; the 28 State senates; and 29 State house chambers. In 24 States the governor’s office, State senate, and State house are all under Republican control.

Here are the details.

Governors

• 30 Republicans
• 20 Democrats

State Senate

• 28 Republican Chambers
• 20 Democratic Chambers
• 1 Split Chamber (Virginia)
• 1 Non-Partisan Chamber (Nebraska)
• 1,024 Republican State Senators
• 890 Democratic State Senators
• 49 Non-Partisan State Senators
• 4 Independent State Senators
• 5 Vacant State Senate Seats

State House

• 29 Republican Chambers
• 20 Democratic Chambers
• 1 State without a lower house (Nebraska)
• 2,794 Republicans
• 2,581 Democrats
• 15 Independents
• 8 third Party members
• 18 Vacant State House Seats

Governor, Senate, and House

• 24 States governed by Republicans
• 13 States governed by Democrats
• 4 States governed by a Democratic executive and lower house with a Republican upper house
• 4 States governed by a Republican executive with Democrats running both houses of legislature
• 3 States governed by a Democratic executive with Republicans running both houses of legislature
• 1 State governed by a Republican executive and lower house with a Democratic upper house
• 1 State with a Republican governor with a non-partisan, unicameral legislature

There are 3,818 Republican State Legislators and 3,471 Democratic State Legislators.

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Technology

[A note: The ubiquity of email has been established once and for all. Earlier this week I was exchanging emails with a new mother. Jokingly, I asked whether the new baby had its own email address. Thirty seconds later I received the baby’s email address.]

The use of email in our daily lives as a partial replacement for the telephone leads to some differing attitudes among Americans. While the issue of National Security Agency surveillance is still developing in the minds of Americans, a recent survey found that 56% of Americans find it “acceptable” for the government to track phone records, while 41% find it unacceptable. However, when it comes to the monitoring of everyone’s email, 52% disagree and 45% agree.

Furthermore, some 62% say it is important to “investigate possible terrorist threats,” even though those efforts may intrude on personal privacy. 34% disagree. This reflects little change from 2006, when 65% expressed this point of view and 32% disagreed.

Age plays a significant role in an individual’s point of view about these questions. 60% of those 18-29 years of age think the release of classified information by Edward Snowden “serves the public interest.” Only 36% of those 65 and older share that view. 50% of those under 29 years of age think the government should not pursue a criminal case against Snowden. 55% of those 65+ think such a case should be pursued. [PEW 6/6-9 and 6/11-16/13]

Reflecting the fact that public opinion is still evolving, a Gallup survey taken June 10-11 found that 53% of adults disapprove of the Federal government acquiring records from telephone and internet companies in order to compile telephone call and internet communication logs.

In yet a third survey, 50% of those 18-29, and 62% of those 50+, are mostly negative about the collection of various kinds of information by “businesses, law enforcement, government, individuals and other groups.” [Nat Journal 5/29-6/1]

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Age-based usage of the Internet is demonstrated in a variety of ways. Here is another. 73% of those 18-29 years of age oppose allowing each State to collect sales tax on purchases its residents make over the Internet. Only 46% of those 65 and over express that view. [Gallup 6/13]

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51% of Americans believe that the “laws covering the sale of guns should be made more strict.” Since 1994, those supporting stricter gun laws have ranged from a high of 59% in November 1994 to a low of 39% in April 2012. In April of this year 54% supported stricter laws.

56% think it is not likely that the President and Congress will pass laws that make significant changes in gun policy. Yet, 69% believe that the Congress should pass a law that expands background checks for gun purchases. [CBS/NYT 6/13]

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For the second year in a row, the “Bad News Babes,” a softball team composed of women who are members of the media, defeated the “Congressional Women’s” team, 11-8.

The Congressional team was led by Rep. Debbie Wasserman Shultz (D- Florida), Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), and Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV).

The media team was led by Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report and Brianna Keilar, White House correspondent for CNN. Amy Walter was selected as the game’s most valuable player.

Pamela Ryckman (author of “Stiletto Network”), writing in the Washington Post, said, “While their male counterparts remain divided along party lines – the annual Congressional Baseball Game, which includes almost all men, pits Republicans against Democrats – the softball team is a bipartisan effort."

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