Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

June 29, 2013 8:57 AM

The Congress

83% disapprove of the job being done by Congress. [CNN/ORG 6/13] The job that Democrats in Congress are doing has a disapproval rating of 60% and the job Republicans are doing is disapproved by 67%. [FOX 6/13]

Gallup, which has Congressional disapproval at 78%, reports that the reasons for this level of disapproval are “party gridlock”--28%, “not getting anything done” -- 21%, and “caring more about politics than the country” -- 11%. [6/13]

Only 10% have confidence in Congress. This is the lowest score ever recorded by Gallup. As recently as 2004, the confidence level was at 29%. [Gallup 6/13]

While Congressional behavior is panned by many, it is the case that “respondents rated a member of Congress far more favorably if the lawmaker put the interests of his or her district or state over those of the country as a whole.” [Study by David Doherty of Loyola University of Chicago, reported by Amy Walter, Cook Political Report 6/20]

By 45% to 42%, adults prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats as opposed to a Congress controlled by Republicans. [NBC/WSJ 6/13]

One disquieting factor for Democrats is that the issues on which the Administration is focused, such as gun control, immigration, same sex marriage, climate change, and implementation of the Affordable Care Act, do not provide much of a platform on which Democratic candidates can stand.


The U.S. Senate

  • Democrats 52
  • Republicans 46
  • Independents 2
Congressman Ed Markey easily won the special election to fill the Massachusetts U.S. Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. Early on, various Republican-oriented political organizations -- PACs and 501(c)(4)s -- decided that capturing this seat was too high a hill to climb, and did not engage with financial resources on behalf of Gabriel Gomez, the Republican nominee.

Two Democratic Senate seats have moved from Toss-Up to Leaning Republican, South Dakota and West Virginia. Two additional Democrat seats have moved from Leaning Democrat to Toss-Up, Alaska and North Carolina.

Looking at the six Democratic Toss-Up races, Montana will move to Leaning Democrat when former governor Brian Schweitzer announces his candidacy for the Democratic nomination.

Assuming that South Dakota and West Virginia do end up in the Republican camp in 2014, Republicans have to pick up four more seats. A steep, but not impossible, hill to climb. Betting among those who spend time gaming the election is that the Republicans are like to have a pickup of three in 2014.



* Italics denotes the retirement of a current member.

Safe Democratic (11) Leaning Democrat (2) Toss-Up (6) Leaning Republican (4) Safe Republican (11)
Colorado Michigan Alaska Georgia Alabama
Delaware New Hampshire Arkansas Kentucky Idaho
Hawaii   Louisiana So. Dakota Kansas
Illinois   Iowa West Virginia
Maine
Massachusetts   Montana
Mississippi
Minnesota   No. Carolina   Nebraska
New Jersey       Oklahoma
New Mexico       So. Carolina
Oregon       Tennessee
Rhode Island       Texas
Virginia       Wyoming
         


  Democrats Republicans
Seats not up in 2014 34 31
Safe in 2014 11 12
Leaning in 2012 2 4
Total 47 47
     
Toss-ups 6 (D)  



The House of Representatives

Due to the redistricting of the 435 Congressional districts, completed in 2012, it is hard to divine a path that would lead to the Democrats retaking the House in this decade.

According to Politico (6/19), of the 435 Congressional districts

  • 242 tilt toward Republicans
  • 185 tilt toward Democrats
If you want a contrary view, WW suggests you review the recent Democracy Corps survey of likely 2014 voters in the 80 most competitive Congressional districts. [June 21,2013]

As it has for a very long time, WW regularly reprints and relies on the analysis of House races published by the “Cook Political Report.”

  1/24/13 2/21/13 4/17/13 6/20/13
Total Dem 201 201 201 201
Solid Dem 167 166 166 163
Likely Dem 17 18 18 18
Lean Dem 11 11 11 12
Toss Up/Tilt D 7 7 8 9
Toss Up–D 6 6 6 8
Toss Up-R 1 1 2 1
Lean GOP 7 10 10 10
Likely GOP 18 17 18 17
Solid GOP 208 206 204 206
Total GOP 234 234 234 234


“The Rothenberg Political Report” has also posted a report that deals with the entire House. [Thanks to the Rothenberg Report.]

  3/12 4/19 6/14
Total Democrat 201 200 194
Safe Democrat 176 176 177
D Favored 10 10 8
Lean D 6 6 9
Toss Up / Tilt D 6 6 5
Toss Up-D 3 2 3
Toss Up-R 2 3 1
Toss Up / Tilt R 5 5 5
Lean R 5 5 5
R Favored 13 13 10
Safe Republican 207 208 212
Total Republican 234 234 227


Return to Home Page