The Congress

83% disapprove of the job being done by Congress. [CNN/ORG 6/13] The job that Democrats in Congress are doing has a disapproval rating of 60% and the job Republicans are doing is disapproved by 67%. [FOX 6/13]

Gallup, which has Congressional disapproval at 78%, reports that the reasons for this level of disapproval are “party gridlock”--28%, “not getting anything done” -- 21%, and “caring more about politics than the country” -- 11%. [6/13]

Only 10% have confidence in Congress. This is the lowest score ever recorded by Gallup. As recently as 2004, the confidence level was at 29%. [Gallup 6/13]

While Congressional behavior is panned by many, it is the case that “respondents rated a member of Congress far more favorably if the lawmaker put the interests of his or her district or state over those of the country as a whole.” [Study by David Doherty of Loyola University of Chicago, reported by Amy Walter, Cook Political Report 6/20]

By 45% to 42%, adults prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats as opposed to a Congress controlled by Republicans. [NBC/WSJ 6/13]

One disquieting factor for Democrats is that the issues on which the Administration is focused, such as gun control, immigration, same sex marriage, climate change, and implementation of the Affordable Care Act, do not provide much of a platform on which Democratic candidates can stand.

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The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 52
• Republicans 46
• Independents 2

Congressman Ed Markey easily won the special election to fill the Massachusetts U.S. Senate seat vacated by John Kerry. Early on, various Republican-oriented political organizations -- PACs and 501(c)(4)s -- decided that capturing this seat was too high a hill to climb, and did not engage with financial resources on behalf of Gabriel Gomez, the Republican nominee.

Two Democratic Senate seats have moved from Toss-Up to Leaning Republican, South Dakota and West Virginia. Two additional Democrat seats have moved from Leaning Democrat to Toss-Up, Alaska and North Carolina.

Looking at the six Democratic Toss-Up races, Montana will move to Leaning Democrat when former governor Brian Schweitzer announces his candidacy for the Democratic nomination.

Assuming that South Dakota and West Virginia do end up in the Republican camp in 2014, Republicans have to pick up four more seats. A steep, but not impossible, hill to climb. Betting among those who spend time gaming the election is that the Republicans are like to have a pickup of three in 2014.

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* Italics denotes the retirement of a current member.

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The House of Representatives

Due to the redistricting of the 435 Congressional districts, completed in 2012, it is hard to divine a path that would lead to the Democrats retaking the House in this decade.

According to Politico (6/19), of the 435 Congressional districts

• 242 tilt toward Republicans
• 185 tilt toward Democrats

If you want a contrary view, WW suggests you review the recent Democracy Corps survey of likely 2014 voters in the 80 most competitive Congressional districts. [June 21,2013]

As it has for a very long time, WW regularly reprints and relies on the analysis of House races published by the “Cook Political Report.”



“The Rothenberg Political Report” has also posted a report that deals with the entire House. [Thanks to the Rothenberg Report.]

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