The Congress

83% disapprove of the job being done by Congress. [NBC/WSJ 7/13] The average disapproval of five surveys taken during July is 77%. [Polling Report] This is the highest level of disapproval of Congress that has been recorded since 1994, although it is in the range of the ratings published since the middle of 2011.

The job that Democrats in Congress are doing has a disapproval rating of 55%, and the job Republicans are doing is disapproved by 67%. [CBS 7/13]

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The “partisanship and inability of Congress to get things done” leads the list of the reasons why folks are most unhappy with the performance of the government in Washington. 27% cite that reason. Coming in second, with 16%, is “the needs and challenges facing average middle class Americans are being ignored.” Third place goes to “the policies and leadership of the Obama administration,” with 13%. [NBC/WSJ 7/21/13]

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Adults are now equally divided, 44% to 44%, in their preference as to whether they want the Democrats or Republicans to control the Congress. In June the Democrats had a 3-point advantage. The last time the Democrats didn’t have at least a one point lead was August 2011, and in June of that year it was also 44% to 44%.

Of particular note, among self-identified Independents, 46% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress, while 27% prefer that the Democrats be in control.

When asked in July whether their representative deserves re-election, 57% chose “give a new person a chance.” The last time 57% expressed this view was in June 2010, followed by 56% expressing that view in August 2010.

Again in July 2013, 57% said that, given the option on the ballot, they would replace every single member of Congress. In October 2010 only 45% expressed that view. The number has been growing ever since. [NBC/WSJ 7/13]

Democrats lost 63 House seats in the 2010 election.

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The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 52
• Republicans 46
• Independents 2

Earlier this year, with the Democrats controlling the U.S. Senate by 55 to 45, the idea that the Republicans might regain control of that body seemed like a bit of a dream. (The passing of New Jersey Senator Frank Lautenberg resulted in the appointment of a Republican to fill his seat until a special election in the fall. It is anticipated that Democrat Cory Booker, Mayor of Newark, will win that election, returning the Senate to a 55/45 Democratic majority.)

Now, some six months later, it is not beyond the pale that Vice President Joe Biden will spend more time on Capitol Hill after the 2014 election, ever ready to assume the Chair in the Senate.

In the June WW, six Senate races were rated as Toss-Ups: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Iowa, Montana, and North Carolina. In this issue only two States, Arkansas and Louisiana, remain as Toss-ups.

With the decision of ex-Governor Brian Schwitzer to not enter the race, Montana moves to Leaning Republican. Most recent polling suggests that Alaska, Iowa, and North Carolina are now Leaning Democrat.

This leaves Democratic incumbents in Arkansas and Louisiana in the Toss- Up column. Republican U.S. House member Tom Cotton has now announced that he will challenge Democratic Mark Pryor. Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu in Louisiana is in a better position than Pryor.

A new entry in the Toss Up column (Cook Political Report) is Kentucky. Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell now faces a double header. He is being challenged in the primary by Matt Bevin, a wealthy businessman. Assuming he gets through the primary challenge he will face the current Democratic Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Grimes, a member of a prominent Democratic family.

Bevin is in the Rand Paul school of Republicanism. It appears that, if McConnell gets through the primary, he will have a hard fight against Grimes. If Bevin wins the primary, he will likely be in a better position to win the general election as well. One thing is likely, McConnell will not lack for resources, financial and human.

Michelle Nunn’s entry into the Georgia Senate race has created hope in Democratic circles that this open seat might switch. There is not enough information to make a real assessment at this time.

In February, Nate Silver used his own brand of analysis to suggest that the Republicans would finish 2014 with 49 or 50 U.S. Senate seats. His most recent analysis published on July 15th suggests that Republicans may be on a path to 50 or 51 seats.

* Italics denotes the retirement of a current member.

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The House of Representatives

There is little or no evidence that the Democrats can retake control of the House of Representatives in 2014.

Here are the facts from the Cook Political Report.

• Only 90 of the 435 House Districts are competitive. In 2012 there were 99 such districts.
• Only 9 House races are rated as toss-ups and, of those, 8 are held by Democrats
• Only 5 of the 234 Republicans in the House represent Districts that lean Democratic
• 15 Democrats represent Districts that lean Republican

As it has for a very long time, WW regularly reprints and relies on the analysis of House races published by the “Cook Political Report.”



“The Rothenberg Political Report” has also posted a report that deals with the entire House. [Thanks to the Rothenberg Political Report.]

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