September 13, 2013 11:57 AM
The Congress
In the most recent CNN/ORC survey, 20% approve of the job being done by Congress, while 78% disapprove. This is the highest approval number recorded in the six times this survey question has been asked in this poll since January 2011. [CNN/ORC 9/8/13] . Roughly a month earlier, Gallup reported a 14% approval rating and 81% disapproval. [Gallup 8/11/13]The U.S. Senate
- Democrats 52
- Republicans 46
- Independents 2
Corey Booker (D) is the odds-on favorite to win the October special U.S. Senate election in New Jersey to replace Frank Lautenberg (D). This will result in there being 53 Democrats in the Senate.
A change from the August Washington Watch is that Michigan and New Hampshire move from Leaning Democrat to Safe Democrat. This increases the safe Democrat seats to 13.
Louisiana remains in the Toss Up column, but there is some evidence that the race is moving toward the incumbent Mary Landrieu (D), and an argument can be made that this race could move to the Leaning Democrat column.
There is much interest in the Georgia race. Recent Democratic polling shows Michelle Nunn (D) holding her own or leading potential Republican candidates. The Democrats hope is pinned on the Nunn name (Michelle’s father was a well regarded Democrat Senator from that State and is around to help her.)
However, until the Republican primary contest is over on May 20, 2014, there no way to get a hard assessment of the race. Republicans are concerned that their multi-candidate primary could result in a candidate too extreme for the general election electorate, e.g., Missouri and Indiana in 2012.
* Italics denotes the retirement of a current member.
| Safe Democratic (13) | Leaning Democrat (3) | Toss-Up (3) | Leaning Republican (4) | Safe Republican (11) |
| Colorado | Alaska | Arkansas | Georgia | Alabama |
| Delaware | Iowa | Kentucky | Montana | Idaho |
| Hawaii | No. Carolina | Louisiana | So. Dakota | Kansas |
| Illinois | West Virginia |
Maine | ||
| Massachusetts | Mississippi | |||
| Michigan | Nebraska | |||
| Minnesota | Oklahoma | |||
| New Hampshire | So. Carolina | |||
| New Jersey | Tennessee | |||
| New Mexico | Texas | |||
| Oregon | Wyoming | |||
| Rhode Island | ||||
| Virginia |
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Seats not up in 2014 | 34 | 31 |
| Safe in 2014 | 13 | 12 |
| Leaning in 2012 | 3 | 4 |
| Total | 50 | 47 |
| Toss-ups | 3 (2D, 1R) |
The House of Representatives
There has been little change in the structure of the House of Representatives races since the August issue of the Watch.As it has for a very long time, WW regularly reprints and relies on the analysis of House races published by the “Cook Political Report.”
| 1/24/13 | 4/17/13 | 6/20/13 | 7/19/13 | 9/5/13 | |
| Total Dem | 201 | 201 | 201 | 201 | 201 |
| Solid Dem | 167 | 166 | 163 | 163 | 163 |
| Likely Dem | 17 | 18 | 18 | 15 | 14 |
| Lean Dem | 11 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 15 |
| Toss Up/Tilt D | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| Toss Up–D | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Toss Up-R | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lean GOP | 7 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 |
| Likely GOP | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 |
| Solid GOP | 208 | 204 | 206 | 205 | 205 |
| Total GOP | 234 | 234 | 234 | 234 | 234 |
“The Rothenberg Political Report” has also posted a report that deals with the entire House. [Thanks to the Rothenberg Political Report.]
| 3/12 | 4/19 | 6/14 | 7/19 | 8/23 | |
| Total Democrat | 201 | 200 | 194 | 202 | 202 |
| Safe Democrat | 176 | 176 | 177 | 175 | 175 |
| D Favored | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| Lean D | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| Toss Up / Tilt D | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Toss Up-D | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Toss Up-R | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Toss Up / Tilt R | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Lean R | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| R Favored | 13 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Safe Republican | 207 | 208 | 212 | 212 | 211 |
| Total Republican | 234 | 234 | 227 | 233 | 233 |
