November 23, 2013 11:55 AM
The Congress
9% of Americans approve of the way Congress is doing its work. This is the lowest approval rating Gallup has recorded in the 39 years it has been asking this question. The average approval rating of the Congress during that period is 33%. The average for the first 11 months of 2013 is 14%.73% disapprove of the way that Republicans in Congress are handling their job and 62% disapprove of the way the Democrats are handling their job. [Quinnipiac 11/13]
Over a two week period in October, preference for a Congress controlled by Democrats went from an 8 point pro-Democrat spread (47% to 39%) to a 4 point pro-Democrat spread (45% to 41%). 63% say that rather than re-electing the current incumbent, a new person should be given a chance to serve. This is the highest number recorded in the NBC/WSJ survey going back to January 1992.
And 30% now say that in a three-way race between a Democrat, a Republican, and an Independent or third- party candidate, they would vote for the Independent or third-party candidate. 28% would vote for the Republican and 30% for the Democrat.
In the same vein, 73% believe that their own representative in Congress is contributing to the problems. [NBC/WSJ 10/28/13]
At the beginning of the current session of Congress, the average age of House members was 57 years, while the average age of members of the Senate was 62 years.
The average tenure of members of the House was 9.1 years, and the average tenure of Senators was 10.2 years. [Cong. Research Service]
The U.S. Senate
- Democrats 53
- Republicans 45
- Independents 2
There have been a few changes since the October issue of the Watch.
Michigan moves from Safe Democrat to Leaning Democrat
Louisiana moves from TossUp to Leaning Democrat
Kentucky moves from TossUp to Leaning Republican
* Italics denotes the retirement of a current member.
Safe Democratic (12) | Leaning Democrat (5) | Toss-Up (1) | Leaning Republican (5) | Safe Republican (12) |
Colorado | Alaska | Arkansas | Georgia | Alabama |
Delaware | Iowa | Kentucky | Idaho | |
Hawaii | Louisiana | Montana | Kansas | |
Illinois | Michigan | So. Dakota |
Maine | |
Massachusetts | No. Carolina | West Virginia |
Mississippi | |
Minnesota | Nebraska | |||
New Hampshire | Oklahoma | |||
New Jersey | So. Carolina | |||
New Mexico | So. Carolina | |||
Oregon | Tennessee | |||
Rhode Island | Texas | |||
Virginia | Wyoming |
Democrats | Republicans | |
Seats not up in 2014 | 34 | 31 |
Safe in 2014 | 12 | 12 |
Leaning in 2012 | 5 | 4 |
Total | 51 | 48 |
Toss-ups | 1D |
The House of Representatives
There has been little change in the structure of the House of Representatives races since the September issue of the Watch, based on the Cook Political Report.As it has for a very long time, WW regularly reprints and relies on the analysis of House races published by the “Cook Political Report.”
1/24/13 | 4/17/13 | 9/5/13 | 10/17/13 | 11/6/13 | |
Total Dem | 201 | 201 | 201 | 202 | 202 |
Solid Dem | 167 | 166 | 163 | 165 | 165 |
Likely Dem | 17 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 12 |
Lean Dem | 11 | 11 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
Toss-up | 7 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 13 |
Toss Up–D | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
Toss Up-R | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Lean GOP | 7 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 16 |
Likely GOP | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
Solid GOP | 208 | 204 | 205 | 200 | 199 |
Total GOP | 234 | 234 | 234 | 233 | 233 |
“The Rothenberg Political Report” has also posted a report that deals with the entire House. [Thanks to the Rothenberg Political Report.]
3/12 | 4/19 | 6/14 | 7/19 | 8/23 | 10/9 | 11/8 | |
Total Democrat | 201 | 200 | 194 | 202 | 202 | 202 | 202 |
Safe Democrat | 176 | 176 | 177 | 175 | 175 | 175 | 175 |
D Favored | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 |
Lean D | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
Toss Up / Tilt D | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
Toss Up-D | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Toss Up-R | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Toss Up / Tilt R | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Lean R | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
R Favored | 13 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
Safe Republican | 207 | 208 | 212 | 212 | 211 | 211 | 208 |
Total Republican | 234 | 234 | 227 | 233 | 233 | 233 | 233 |