The Races: U.S. Senate, U.S. House, President

13% of Americans approve of the way Congress is doing its work. There has been little change in recent months.

Among registered voters, 45% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 46% for the Republican candidate. Men lean to the GOP candidate by 48% to 40%, while women lean to the Democratic candidate 50% to 43%. Those 50-64 years of age favor the Democrat 51% to 42%, while those over age 65 favor the Republican candidate 52% to 42%. [CNN/ORG 5/14]

In late April, the ABC/WP survey found 44% voting for the Republicans and 45% voting for the Democrats. Also in late April, the USAToday/Pew survey found 47% voting Republican, while 43% are voting Democratic.

Among registered voters 20% say that their vote for a Congressional candidate will be a message that they support Obama, while 25% say they will be sending a message that they oppose Obama. This is essentially identical to the number who were using their vote to support or oppose Obama in September 2010. [CNN/ORG 5/14]

However, PEW found that, while 31% of Democratic voters are saying their vote is for Obama, this is a substantial fall from the 47% who took that position in 2010. Among Republicans ,46% say their vote is against Obama, which is a 4% point increase from 2010. [PEW 5/14]

Assuming that the Republicans will continue to control the House of Representatives after this next election, 42% would prefer that the Republicans control the Senate as well. 45% prefer that the Democrats remain in control of that body. [CNN/ORG 5/14]

USA Today (5/5/14) took a look at the ultimate effect of the “generic” ballot at this time in the non-Presidential election year cycle.

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22% of registered voters think that most members of Congress deserve re-election. This is the lowest number ever recorded. The next lowest number was 29%, which was an average for 1992.

50% of registered voters say that the representative in their own Congressional district deserves re-election. This includes 53% of Republicans, 52% of Democrats, and 47% of Independents. [Gallup 5/14/14]

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It is 7:00 a.m. December 6th and...

“It is 7:00 a.m. December 6th and the polls are opening in Louisiana. No one got a majority in the so-called ‘jungle primary’ which was held on November 4th , so the top two finishers compete today.

“At the moment the Senate is divided 50/50. If Mary Landrieu wins, it will stay that way with Vice President Joe Biden casting the tie breaking vote, that is unless an incumbent Democrat decides to switch.

“If Landrieu loses, the Republicans will control the Senate 51/49. “

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The last time the Senate split 50/50 was during the 107th Congress, which began in January 2001. When the Senate convened on January 3 of that year, the Democrats were in control with still Vice-President Al Gore casting the 51st vote.

On January 20th George W. Bush and Dick Cheney were sworn in and the Republicans took control, with Cheney casting the 51st vote. That control lasted until June 6, 2001, when a sitting Republican Senator, Jim Jeffords of Vermont, announced that he was becoming an Independent, and that he would caucus with the Democrats, giving them a one seat advantage.

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Currently, there are 9 Toss-Up seats in the Senate, 7 of which are currently held by Democrats and 2 by Republicans. Current “conventional wisdom” is that the Republicans will hold their 2 Toss-Up seats and that South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia, currently held by Democrats, will definitely switch. Thus, to achieve control, the Republicans need only pickup 3 of the 7 Democratic Toss-up States. New Hampshire and Oregon could become more competitive.

One commentator in whom I have great confidence thinks the Republicans will have achieved control on November 4th. That person is currently predicting a loss of 6-8 incumbent Democratic seats before you get to Louisiana.

Another smart follower of the races, when told the above, reminded me that only three Democratic incumbents have lost their races since 2004, and no two were in the same year.

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A recent survey of potential Democratic campaign target voters provides substantial evidence that there is a pool of voters who, if Democrats can stimulate them, would hold off what appears to be an inevitable Republican takeover of the Senate. [80% of these targeted voters are described as mid-term drop-off voters and the rest as inconsistent or new registrants.]

So-called mainstream Republicans seem to be doing a better job this cycle of promoting Senate candidates who do not appear to be as far to the right as some of those in the last couple of cycles, and who may well have cost them seats.

However, the candidates are solid conservatives. And some, like new nominee Ben Sasse in Nebraska, had both mainstream and Tea party support.

The U.S. Senate

• Democrats 53
• Republicans 45
• Independents 2

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There is little or no theater in watching the 2014 House of Representatives elections. The Republicans will retain control and, based on today’s “facts,” are likely to pick up seats. (Cook Political Report is my bible here.)

The House of Representatives

• Democrats 201
• Republicans 233
• Vacant 1 (G)

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2016

The following have talked or been talked about as potential Presidential candidates in 2016.



Working against whomever wins the Democratic nomination is the fact that since the mid-1940s the same Party has won the Presidency back-to-back only once: 1980-1992 (Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush).

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