May 16, 2014 11:58 AM
Who will vote in 2014
Who will vote in 2014 According to the NBC/WSJ survey, interest in the 2014 election is about where it was at this time in 2010, but lower than it was 2006. The survey uses a scale of 1 to 10, in which 10 signifies that the respondent is very interested in the election.Following is the percentage of respondents who selected 8, 9 or 10.
| 4/14 | 5/10 | 5/06 |
| 67% | 68% | 72% |
Gallup presents a less positive picture, although it uses a different question. At the end of April, Gallup asked respondents whether they were more or less enthusiastic about the coming election than they have been in previous elections. 53% said they were less enthusiastic, while 35% said they were more enthusiastic. This is a rather dramatic shift from 2010, when 52% said they were more enthusiastic. It is also a negative shift from 2006, but less dramatic.
Currently, 42% of Republicans and only 32% of Democrats describe themselves as more enthusiastic; while 50% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats say they are less enthusiastic. [Note: While the 2014 data is based on current surveys, the 2010 and 2006 date is based on annual averages.]
And the ABC/WP April survey asked registered voters whether they were certain to vote (68%), would probably vote (15%), and if voting was only a 50/50 chance (12%). In June 2010, 72% said they were certain to vote and 14% said they would probably vote.
David Winston and Myra Miller have charted the political party composition of the Congressional electorate over the last 30 years, based on exit polls. The chart below reflects turnout from the lowest to the highest in Presidential and off- year elections. Their conclusion is that Independents and non-affiliated voters are playing an increasing role in our elections.
| Presidential Year | Off-Year | ||
| Year | Two Party Turnout % | Year | Two Party Turnout % |
| 2012 | 72 | 2010 | 70 |
| 2008 | 73 | 1990 | 71 |
| 1988 | 74 | 1994 | 72 |
| 1984 | 75 | 1998 | 73 |
| 1992 | 75 | 1986 | 74 |
| 2000 | 75 | 2006 | 74 |
| 1996 | 76 | 2002 | 78 |
| 2004 | 76 | ||
They also looked at the participation of younger voters (18-29) in House elections, i.e., what the percentage of the electorate young voters were in each election in the last 25 years.
| Presidential Years | Non-Presidential Years | |
| 1990 | 14% | |
| 1992 | 20% | |
| 1994 | 13% | |
| 1996 | 17% | |
| 1998 | 13% | |
| 2000 | 16% | |
| 2002 | 11% | |
| 2004 | 16% | |
| 2006 | 12% | |
| 2008 | 18% | |
| 2010 | 12% | |
| 2012 | 19% | |
Apathy toward participation in the electoral process was most recently demonstrated in the hotly contested North Carolina, U.S. Senate Republican primary. Only 16% of eligible voters cast ballots in that election.
In 2014, 47% of registered voters describe themselves as Republican/Lean Republican. This is 6% points higher than in 2006 and 3% points higher than in 2010. 43% of registered voters describe themselves as Democrat/Leaning Democrat: this is 8% points down from 2006 and about the same as in 2010. [PEW 5/14]
