July 3, 2014 12:00 PM
State of the Nation
In mid-June, the NBC/WSJ poll found that 63% of us think the country is on the wrong track. This is about the same as has been found each month since December, 2013.The official BLS unemployment rate for May 2014 is 6.3%, unchanged from the previous month. If one takes into account the total unemployed + those marginally attached to the labor force + those working part-time who want full- time work, the rate is 12.2%. This is down from 13.8% a year ago.
In the 3rd week of June, Gallup found an unemployment rate of 6.1%. This is down from an average of 7% for the month of May. It also found an underemployment rate (unemployed +those working part-time, but wanting full time) of 16.1%, down from the May average of 16.4%
The long term unemployed are having a hard time getting companies to look at their job applications. There has not been this much long-term unemployment since at least 1948. 35% of unemployed people have been out of work for at least six months . [WP 5/14]
Here is a profile of the short-term and long-term unemployed in 2012:
| Percent of Employed | Percent of Short- Term Unemployed (<14 weeks) | Percent of Long- Term Unemployed (>26 weeks) | |
| Male | 53% | 54% | 55% |
| Female | 47 | 46 | 45 |
| Ages 16-34 | 34% | 57% | 40% |
| 35-49 | 33 | 23 | 29 |
| 50+ | 33 | 19 | 31 |
| White, Nonhispanic | 67% | 55% | 51% |
| African American | 10 | 16 | 22 |
| Hispanic | 15 | 22 | 19 |
| Asian/Pacific Islander | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| Less than high school | 9% | 23% | 18% |
| High school | 27 | 33 | 36 |
| Some College | 19 | 20 | 20 |
| Associate's Degree | 11 | 8 | 9 |
| Bachelor’s Degree or Higher | 34 | 17 | 18 |
Probability of Transitioning from Unemployment to Employment by Duration of Unemployment:
| Length of time unemployed | Probability of transitioning to employment (Approx.) |
| Less than 5 Weeks | 32% |
| 5 to 14 weeks | 21% |
| 15 to 26 weeks | 16% |
| 27 to 52 weeks | 13% |
| Over 53 weeks | 9% |
| Brookings Panel on Economic Activity Study | |
More than 7 million people report having two or more jobs. [NYT 5/14]
Another way to measure employment is by examining the employment- population ratio. This is a measurement of employed people as a percentage of the entire civilian, non-institutional population. That ratio has stayed roughly the same since September 2009.
May 2014 Data:
| Employment-population Ratio | |
| Employed | 58.9% |
| Unemployed | 4.6% |
| Want a job but haven’t searched in previous year | 1.6% |
| Want a job but haven’t searched in past 4 weeks | 1.3% |
| Don’t want a job right now | 33.8% |
Employment-population ratio for those ages 25-to-54:
| Percent of 25-to-54-year-olds who were employed | |
| January 2007 | 80.3% |
| October 2011 | 74.8% |
| May 2014 | 76% |
Source: Drew DeSilver, Pew Research Center, June 7, 2014.
From 2000-2013 there has been a transformation in the nature of occupations.
| Occupation | Percent Decline | Jobs Lost | Median Wage 2012 |
| Word processors, typists | -74% | 287,000 | $35,270 |
| Telephone operators | -71 | 72,000 | $32,850 |
| Computer operators | -70 | 218,000 | $38,390 |
| Proofreaders, copy markers | -67 | 14,000 | $32,780 |
| Switchboard operators | -60 | 49,000 | $25,370 |
| Telemarketers | -58 | 129,000 | $22,330 |
| Travel agents | -46 | 65,000 | $34,600 |
| Bookkeeping, accounting, audits | -29 | 501,000 | $35,170 |
| Carpenters | -22 | 336,000 | $39,940 |
| Total | -- | 1,671,000 | $34,600 |
Growing Professions- between 2000-13
| Occupation | Percent Increase | Jobs Added | Median Wage 2012 |
| Computer/systems managers | +164% | 374,000 | $120,950 |
| Physical therapists | +57 | 81,000 | $79,860 |
| Computer software engineers | +49 | 364,000 | $99,000 |
| Financial advisers, analysts | +42 | 144,000 | $72,235 |
| Registered nurses | +32 | 700,000 | $65,470 |
| Financial managers | +28 | 270,000 | $109,740 |
| Physicians, surgeons | +27 | 196,000 | $187,200+ |
| Lawyers | +25 | 215,000 | $113,530 |
| Accountants, auditors | +16 | 255,000 | $63,550 |
| Total | -- | 2,599,000 | $99,000 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics via Steven Rattner, The New York Times, 6/22/14
“The income gap isn’t as static as we think.”
12% of the population will find themselves in the top 1 percent of the income distribution for at least one year
39% will spend at least a year in the top 5%
56% will spend at least a year in the top 10%
73% will spend at least a year in the top 20%
Additionally, 54% will experience poverty or near poverty at least once between the ages of 25-60
[Mark R. Rank and Thomas A. Hirschl - “Chasing the American Dream: Understanding what Shapes our Fortunes” NYT 4/20/14]
[Report: Opportunity since 1970: A Historical Report, published by Opportunity Nation and Measure of America, 2014]
Use of the internet and computers has grown exponentially since the web came into being 25 years ago. The same percentages of women and men participate. Cellphones and smartphones are slightly more likely to be found in the hands of men than of women.
| All Adults | Men | Women | ||
| 1995 | 2014 | 2014 | 2014 | |
| Computer Users | 42% | 81% | 80% | 81% |
| Internet Users | 14% | 87% | 87% | 86% |
| All Adults | Men | Women | ||
| 2000 | 2014 | 2014 | 2014 | |
| Cell phone owners | 53% | 90% | 93% | 88% |
| Smartphone owners* | -- | 58% | 61% | 57% |
By Age
| Age Group | 18-29 | 30-49 | 50-64 | 65+ |
| Internet users | 97% | 93% | 88% | 57% |
| Cell phone owners | 98% | 97% | 88% | 74% |
| Smartphone owners* | 83% | 74% | 49% | 19% |
* Smartphone: a cellular phone that is able to perform many of the functions of a computer, typically having a relatively large screen and an operating system capable of running general-purpose applications.
(Pew Research Center, February 2014, “The Web at 25.” Available at www.pewinternet.org/2014/02/25/the-web-at-25-in-the-u-s)
22% of Americans have positive feelings about the Tea Party Movement. This is only 1 point higher than the all-time low on this question, in October 2013. 40% think the Tea Party has too much influence on the Republican party, while 20% think it does not have enough influence. [NBC/WSJ 6/14]
48% of Republican agreed with the Tea Party in 2010. Today that number is 33%. The number of Republicans who specifically disagree with the Tea Party has grown over that time period from 3% to 11%. [Pew Research Center 5/14]
In a column on June 12, 2014 in the “Washington Post,” Dan Balz makes the following point about the current tumult in the Republican Party.
Balz writes that the GOP is split in a number of ways. There is an establishment wing, which might also be called the business wing. There is the Tea Party wing, which might better be called the populist, conservative, grass-roots insurgency. There is a House wing and a Senate wing, and soon there will be a Presidential wing.
The following is a picture of the ideological makeup of the Congressional electorate from 1984 – 2012, prepared by David Winston and Myra Miller of The Winston Group.
There has been little change in the percentage of conservatives. Liberals have grown from 17% to 25% of the electorate, and Moderates have dropped from 47% to 40%.
Ideology 1984-2012 – Congressional
Ideological makeup of the electorate based on exit polls
| Year | Conservative | Liberal | Moderate |
| 1984 | 36% | 17% | 47% |
| 1986 | 35 | 17 | 48 |
| 1988 | 35 | 18 | 47 |
| 1990 | 34 | 19 | 46 |
| 1992 | 30 | 21 | 49 |
| 1994 | 37 | 18 | 45 |
| 1996 | 33 | 20 | 47 |
| 1998 | 31 | 19 | 50 |
| 2000 | 30 | 20 | 50 |
| 2002 | 34 | 17 | 49 |
| 2004 | 34 | 21 | 45 |
| 2006 | 32 | 20 | 47 |
| 2008 | 34 | 22 | 44 |
| 2010 | 42 | 20 | 38 |
| 2012 | 35 | 25 | 40 |
Americans’ confidence in TV news, newspapers and news on the internet is at a record low. 22% have confidence in newspapers, 19% in TV news, and 18% in news on the internet. [Gallup 6/14]
48.8% of Americans now live in States in which same sex couples may marry. 35% live in States where it is currently banned. 16.2% live in States in which the right to marry is in limbo. [WP 6/14] It is only a matter of time before all gay Americans will share the same right of marriage that is available to opposite sex couples.
47% of Americans view themselves as “pro-choice,” while 46% describe themselves as “pro-life.” [Gallup 5/14]
69% currently support physician-assisted euthanasia. However, support for euthanasia by “painless means” is only supported by 48% of those who attend church at least weekly, while those who attend church less than monthly support euthanasia by 82%. [Gallup 6/14]
Americans have been losing their taste for milk. In 1970, average consumption per American was 1.5 cups a day. Now it is roughly 0.8 cups per day.
The decline has affected all kinds of milk, but consumption of whole milk has tumbled the most, down 78% since 1970. The greatest declines “are in the 2- 11 and 12-19 age groups.” It seems that the widely acclaimed health benefits of milk have been challenged, along with the increased availability of an ever- growing variety of other drinks. [WP 6/21/14]
