July 3, 2014 11:57 AM
The Congress
Public confidence in the Congress has hit a new low, with only 7% expressing a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the Congress. The high point in the last decade was 19% in 2006. This 7% confidence figure compares to confidence of 74% in the military, 53% in the police, 30% in the Supreme Court, and 29% in the Presidency. [Gallup 6/14]14% approve of the way that Congress is handling its job, 78% disapprove. [NYT/CBS 6/14] In June, surveys conducted by Fox, Gallup, and CBS/NYT show that approval of the job being done by Congress ranges from 13-16% approval. Three surveys taken by The Economist/YouGov during the month averaged 9.3% approval.
36% of Americans would prefer that separate Parties control the House and the Senate, while 32% prefer single Party control. Roughly equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans prefer one Party control of both Houses. But only 27% of Independents would make that choice. [Gallup 6/14]
Among registered voters, 45% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 43% for the Republican candidate. [NBC/WSJ 6/14] In the NYT/CBS 6/14 survey, 42% say they will vote Democratic and 39% Republican.
Only 32% of registered voters think their current representative deserves to be re-elected. 57% take the opposite view. [NBC/WSJ 6/14]
Given a choice between an Independent/3rd party candidate, a Democrat, and a Republican when they cast their vote for their Member of the House of Representatives, 27% would go Independent, 35% Democratic, and 30% Republican. These are about the same results as were found last October, and in the summer and fall of 2010. [NBC/WSJ 6/14]
Among registered voters 24% say that their vote for a Congressional candidate will be a message that they support Obama, while 34% say they will be sending a message that they oppose Obama. 41% say their vote is not a signal either way. [NBC/WSJ 6/14] A survey conducted by NBC/WSJ/Annenberg Public Policy Center during the 2nd week in June, asking essentially the same question, found 23% saying their vote was in support of Obama and 36% saying their vote was against Obama.
No current, elected leader of the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives has a favorable rating of more than 33%, while 40-49% disapprove of one or more of the four leaders. [Gallup 5/14]
The Senate
There continue to be 9 Toss-Up seats in the Senate, 7 of which are currently held by Democrats and 2 by Republicans. “Conventional wisdom” continues to tell us that the Republicans will hold their 2 Toss-Up seats, and that South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia, all currently held by Democrats, will switch. Thus, to achieve control, the Republicans need only pickup 3 of the 7 Democratic Toss- up States.Iowa, which was pretty much seen as heading for continued control by a Democrat, is showing signs of being quite competitive. Bruce Braley (D) was leading Joni Ernst by 13 points in March, when there was still a Republican primary contest in bloom. Now, in mid-June, Braley leads Ernst by 4 points.
Among the Democratic Toss-ups, Arkansas, which was seen to be leaning towards a Republican take-over seems to have leveled out. Pryor is a long way from having a lock on re-election however. On the other hand, Begich’s position in Alaska seems to have improved. And Udall (D) seems to be doing better in Colorado.
Recent publicly available polling in the Kentucky race (all from pollsters in whom WW does not have much faith) shows Grimes with a chance against McConnell. But it is hard to believe that, at the end of the day, McConnell will lose.
As for Georgia, it will be hard to get a real read until the July 22nd Republican primary runoff is completed. In general, Nunn seems to be holding her own.
In thinking about the 2014 races it is hard not to think about the run-off between Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel. While most everyone has given the race to Cochran, McDaniel has not conceded and is in the process of trying to identify voters who participated in the Democratic primary and then also voted in the Republican runoff.
McDaniel has also complained about people who are not Republicans voting in the Republican primary. In that regard he may have led the way. It is reported that McDaniel voted in the Democratic primary in 2003 and he certainly was not a Democrat.
It appears that Cochran’s margin of victory (some 7,000 votes) resulted from an effective courtship of African American voters who had not participated in the Democratic primary but who had supported him in the past.
