Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

July 3, 2014 11:56 AM

The Races: U.S. Senate, U.S. House, President

The U.S. Senate

  • Democrats 53
  • Republicans 45
  • Independents 2


  Democrats Republicans
Seats not up in 2014 34 30
Safe in 2014 10 13
Leaning in 2014 1 3
  Shaheen (NH) Walsh (MT)
    West Virginia
    South Dakota
Total 45 46


Toss-ups
7 Democrats 2 Republicans
Iowa Mcconnell (KY)
Landrieu (LA) Georgia
Hagan (NC)  
Pryor (AR)  
Michigan  
Begich (AK)  
Udall (CO)  




There is nothing particularly exciting to report in the contest for control of the House of Representatives. Republicans will maintain control. Based on the number of current Democratic seats in the Toss-Up column, it is possible, if not likely, that Republicans will add to their majority. (Cook Political Report is my bible here.)

The House of Representatives

  • Democrats 199
  • Republicans 233
  • Vacant 3 (2D/1R)


  Democrats Republicans
Safe in 2014 160 198
Leaning 30 (2 GOP seat) 34 (includes 2 Democrat seats)
 
Toss-ups Democrats Republicans
  11 2



2016

Since the last edition of the Watch (mid-May) six Democrats and two Republicans have been added to the list of people who have said they are thinking about running for President or who have been talked about by others as potential candidates for the top office. The Republicans are Rick Santorum and Rick Perry. The Democrats are Duval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, Jay Nixon, Jim Webb, and Bernie Sanders.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton remains the one person who clears the field if she decides to run. The only interesting note is that Elizabeth Warren, who a couple of months ago was adamant that she is not contemplating a run for President in 2016, refused to commit herself to that position last month.

On the Republican side there is no such figure.

Republicans Democrats
Jeb Bush Joe Biden
Chris Christie Hillary Clinton
Bobby Jindal Andrew Cuomo
Rand Paul Kristin Gillibrand
Marco Rubio Amy Klobuchar
Paul Ryan Martin O’Malley
Mike Pence Elizabeth Warren
John Kasich Howard Dean
Scott Walker Duval Patrick
Ted Cruz Brian Schweitzer
Rick Santorum Mark Warner
Rick Perry Jay Nixon
  Jim Webb
  Bernie Sanders




Clinton caused a certain flurry over the last several weeks based on her answers to questions relating to the family wealth. Her detractors have begun arguing that, given her wealth and other circumstances, she cannot “relate to or understand the problems of average Americans” as well as other Presidential candidates might.

In a survey conducted in late June, 55% said she could relate as well as other candidates while 37% took the opposite view. The responses of men and women were relatively the same with a few more men saying she could not relate as well. Independents split 46% yes and 44% no on the question. [NBC/WSJ/Annenberg Public Policy Center]



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