July 3, 2014 11:56 AM
The Races: U.S. Senate, U.S. House, President
The U.S. Senate
- Democrats 53
- Republicans 45
- Independents 2
Democrats | Republicans | |
Seats not up in 2014 | 34 | 30 |
Safe in 2014 | 10 | 13 |
Leaning in 2014 | 1 | 3 |
Shaheen (NH) | Walsh (MT) | |
West Virginia | ||
South Dakota | ||
Total | 45 | 46 |
Toss-ups | |
7 Democrats | 2 Republicans |
Iowa | Mcconnell (KY) |
Landrieu (LA) | Georgia |
Hagan (NC) | |
Pryor (AR) | |
Michigan | |
Begich (AK) | |
Udall (CO) |
There is nothing particularly exciting to report in the contest for control of the House of Representatives. Republicans will maintain control. Based on the number of current Democratic seats in the Toss-Up column, it is possible, if not likely, that Republicans will add to their majority. (Cook Political Report is my bible here.)
The House of Representatives
- Democrats 199
- Republicans 233
- Vacant 3 (2D/1R)
Democrats | Republicans | |
Safe in 2014 | 160 | 198 |
Leaning | 30 (2 GOP seat) | 34 (includes 2 Democrat seats) |
Toss-ups | Democrats | Republicans |
11 | 2 |
2016
Since the last edition of the Watch (mid-May) six Democrats and two Republicans have been added to the list of people who have said they are thinking about running for President or who have been talked about by others as potential candidates for the top office. The Republicans are Rick Santorum and Rick Perry. The Democrats are Duval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, Jay Nixon, Jim Webb, and Bernie Sanders.On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton remains the one person who clears the field if she decides to run. The only interesting note is that Elizabeth Warren, who a couple of months ago was adamant that she is not contemplating a run for President in 2016, refused to commit herself to that position last month.
On the Republican side there is no such figure.
Republicans | Democrats |
Jeb Bush | Joe Biden |
Chris Christie | Hillary Clinton |
Bobby Jindal | Andrew Cuomo |
Rand Paul | Kristin Gillibrand |
Marco Rubio | Amy Klobuchar |
Paul Ryan | Martin O’Malley |
Mike Pence | Elizabeth Warren |
John Kasich | Howard Dean |
Scott Walker | Duval Patrick |
Ted Cruz | Brian Schweitzer |
Rick Santorum | Mark Warner |
Rick Perry | Jay Nixon |
Jim Webb | |
Bernie Sanders |
Clinton caused a certain flurry over the last several weeks based on her answers to questions relating to the family wealth. Her detractors have begun arguing that, given her wealth and other circumstances, she cannot “relate to or understand the problems of average Americans” as well as other Presidential candidates might.
In a survey conducted in late June, 55% said she could relate as well as other candidates while 37% took the opposite view. The responses of men and women were relatively the same with a few more men saying she could not relate as well. Independents split 46% yes and 44% no on the question. [NBC/WSJ/Annenberg Public Policy Center]