October 28, 2014 11:56 AM
The Races: U.S. Senate
All signs point to November 4th not being a good day for Senate Democrats. [Keep in mind that two States require 50% +1 to win, Louisiana and Georgia. Those races might not be decided until runoff elections in December and January respectively.]There are 9 States designated as toss-ups in the chart below.
If the two toss-ups that are leaning Democrat and the four toss-ups that are leaning Republican end up in the direction they are leaning, the Senate count will be
Democrats 47 – Republicans 50
That leaves three toss-ups that are hard to classify as leaning one way or the other. If the seats simply end up with the Party that currently holds them, the final result will be
Democrats 48 – Republicans 52
If the Democrats hold the seat they are currently hold and pickup Georgia or Kansas the result will be
Democrats 49 – Republicans 51
Or, if the Republicans have as big a day as some are predicting, and all of the Toss-ups go Republican the final result could be
Democrats 47 – Republicans 53
The U.S. Senate
- Democrats 53
- Republicans 45
- Independents 2
| Democrats | Republicans | |
| Seats not up in 2014 | 34 | 30 |
| Safe in 2014 | 7 | 15 |
| Leaning in 2014 | 4 | 1 |
| Michigan | Pryor (AR) | |
| Franken (MN) | ||
| Merkley (OR) | ||
| Warner (VA) | ||
| Total | 45 | 46 |
| Toss-ups | |
| Toss-ups/Lean Dem - 2 | Toss-ups/Lean GOP - 4 |
| Hagen (NC) | Iowa |
| Shaheen (NH) | Landrieu (LA) |
| Begich (AK) | |
| McConnell (KY) | |
| Pure Toss-ups | |
| 1 Democrat seat | 2 Republican seats |
| Udall (CO) | Georgia |
| Roberts (KS) | |
Three Democratic Senators, Jeff Merkley (OR), Mark Begich (AK), and Al Franken (MN) were first elected in 2008, defeating Republican incumbents. Each of them won with less than 50% of the vote. Now two of them, Merkley and Franken, seem headed for re-election. Begich is running 2 to 3 points behind in every recent survey. [Trivia provided by Ron Faucheux]
