Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

October 28, 2014 11:56 AM

The Races: U.S. Senate

All signs point to November 4th not being a good day for Senate Democrats. [Keep in mind that two States require 50% +1 to win, Louisiana and Georgia. Those races might not be decided until runoff elections in December and January respectively.]

There are 9 States designated as toss-ups in the chart below.

If the two toss-ups that are leaning Democrat and the four toss-ups that are leaning Republican end up in the direction they are leaning, the Senate count will be

Democrats 47 – Republicans 50

That leaves three toss-ups that are hard to classify as leaning one way or the other. If the seats simply end up with the Party that currently holds them, the final result will be

Democrats 48 – Republicans 52

If the Democrats hold the seat they are currently hold and pickup Georgia or Kansas the result will be

Democrats 49 – Republicans 51

Or, if the Republicans have as big a day as some are predicting, and all of the Toss-ups go Republican the final result could be

Democrats 47 – Republicans 53

The U.S. Senate

  • Democrats 53
  • Republicans 45
  • Independents 2

  Democrats Republicans
Seats not up in 2014 34 30
Safe in 2014 7 15
Leaning in 2014 4 1
  Michigan Pryor (AR)
  Franken (MN)  
  Merkley (OR)  
  Warner (VA)  
Total 45 46

Toss-ups/Lean Dem - 2 Toss-ups/Lean GOP - 4
Hagen (NC) Iowa
Shaheen (NH) Landrieu (LA)
  Begich (AK)
  McConnell (KY)
Pure Toss-ups
1 Democrat seat 2 Republican seats
Udall (CO) Georgia
  Roberts (KS)

Three Democratic Senators, Jeff Merkley (OR), Mark Begich (AK), and Al Franken (MN) were first elected in 2008, defeating Republican incumbents. Each of them won with less than 50% of the vote. Now two of them, Merkley and Franken, seem headed for re-election. Begich is running 2 to 3 points behind in every recent survey. [Trivia provided by Ron Faucheux]

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