November 22, 2014 6:55 AM
A Special Analysis of the 2014 Election
One of the best analyses of the 2014 election was produced by Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. It is based on pre-election and post- election surveys by Public Opinion Strategies, the NBC/WSJ national survey, and national exit polls.Going into the 2014 election, 63% of registered voters believed that the country was on the wrong track, the highest number for a mid-term election going back to 1990. In 2014, this included 89% of Republicans, 64% of Independents and 41% of Democrats.
Obama’s disapproval rating going into the election, at 55%,was consistent with other Presidents’ in years in which their Partys got smacked in a mid-term election. The disapproval scores were Clinton 1994 – 49%, Bush 2006 – 57%, Obama 2010-55%.
65% of likely voters were contacted by one campaign or another.
Republicans had a 6% point advantage in the generic Congressional ballot. Independents favored Republicans by 16% points. Independents are consistently tipping the scales to one Party or the other.
By 32% to 17% voters said their vote was in opposition to President Obama. 86% of those who approved the job being done by Obama voted Democratic. 87% of those who disapprove of the job being done by Obama voted Republican.
Men went Republican by +20%
Women went Democratic by +6%
Whites went Republicans by +23%
Non-whites went Democratic by +44%
60% of voters made up their minds in September or earlier
24% made up their minds in October
15% decided in the last few days before the election
The later voters decided, the more likely they were to vote Democratic for Congress. However, the generic Congressional ballot was tied among those who voted early and swung Republican on Election day.
34% of voters cast their ballots early. In 2006, the number of early voters was 23% and in 2010, it was 27%. There is no difference among Republicans, Democrats and Independents in the number of early voters.
