November 22, 2014 6:54 AM
The Polls Were a Bit Out of Whack
When you compare the Real Clear Politics* average results for the last days before the election with the final results, there were a number of races in which the final polls were not close to the final election results.Real Clear Politics Polling Average Compared to Final Figures, by state
Selected Senate Races
| State | Last RCP Average | Final Number | Difference | |||||||||
| Alaska | Sullivan +2.4 | Sullivan +3.7 | 1.3 points | |||||||||
| Arkansas | Cotton +7.0 | Cotton +17.0 | 10.0 points | |||||||||
| Colorado | Gardner +2.5 | Gardner +2.9 | 0.4 points | |||||||||
| Georgia | Perdue +3.0 | Perdue +7.9 | 4.9 points | |||||||||
| Iowa | Ernst +2.3 | Ernst +8.5 | 6.2 points | |||||||||
| Kansas | Orman +0.8 | Roberts +10.8 | 11.6 points | |||||||||
| Kentucky | McConnell +7.2 | McConnell +15.5 | 8.3 points | |||||||||
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| Michigan | Peters +12.8 | Peters +13.2 | 0.4 points | |||||||||
| Minnesota | Franken +10.0 | Franken +10.3 | 0.3 points | |||||||||
| Montana | Daines +18.0 | Daines +17.9 | 0.1 points | |||||||||
| New Hampshire | Shaheen +0.8 | Shaheen +3.2 | 2.4 points | |||||||||
| New Jersey | Booker +15.4 | Booker +14.2 | 1.2 points | |||||||||
| North Carolina | Hagan +0.7 | Tillis +1.7 | 2.4 points | |||||||||
| Oregon | Merkley +17.3 | Merkley +18.5 | 1.2 points | |||||||||
| South Dakota | Rounds +12.2 | Rounds +20.9 | 8.7 points | |||||||||
| Virginia | Warner +9.7 | Warner +0.8 | 8.9 points | |||||||||
| West Virginia | Capito +16.6 | Capito +27.6 | 11 points | |||||||||
**Data unavailable until December 6th runoff
Selected State Governor Races
| State | Last RCP Average | Final Number | Difference |
| Colorado | Hickenlooper +0.5 | Hickenlooper +2.9 | 2.4 points |
| Connecticut | Malloy +1.3 | Malloy +2.5 | 1.2 points |
| Florida | Crist +0.4 | Scott +1.1 | 1.5 points |
| Georgia | Deal +4.6 | Deal +8.0 | 3.4 points |
| Illinois | Quinn +0.8 | Rauner +4.8 | 5.6 points |
| Kansas | Davis +2.0 | Brownback +3.9 | 5.9 points |
| Maine | LePage +1.4 | LePage +4.9 | 3.5 points |
| Maryland | Brown +7.2* | Hogan +4.7 | 11.9 points* |
| Massachusetts | Baker +3.7 | Baker +1.9 | 1.8 points |
| Michigan | Snyder +2.0 | Snyder +4.2 | 2.2 points |
| New Hampshire | Hassan +3.5 | Hassan +5.2 | 1.7 points |
| Pennsylvania | Wolf +11.0 | Wolf +9.8 | 1.2 points |
| Vermont | Shumlin +15.2* | Shumlin +1.1 | 14.1 points* |
| Wisconsin | Walker +2.2 | Walker +5.7 | 3.5 points |
*The RCP averages for the Maryland and Vermont races were not provided by RealClearPolitics, so an average from several polls taken closest to the election has been calculated and used to calculate the difference.
*Note: The RCP often includes surveys to which WW would ordinarily not give much credence but they are in most cases mixed with surveys to which WW does give credence.
