Looking Ahead to 2016: Contest for President

This is the current list of potential contenders. Inclusion on this list requires very little connection to an actual intention to run for President. For example, if someone suggests publicly that you should or might be a candidate and you do not deny it, you are on the list. 



The numbers below represent the Real Clear Politics average of public surveys in the respective Party “nomination contests” from 7/20-11/23. [For reasons that are not evident, RCP does not include Ben Carson or Mitt Romney.]



Here are the results of a CNN/ORC survey conducted on 11/21-23 that does include Romney and Carson. In the same CNN/ORC survey respondents were asked for their second choice. When those two answers are combined is left off the list, the Republican list is



One interesting potential Republican ticket that is making the rounds is Jeb Bush of Florida for President and Ohio U.S. Senator Rob Portman for Vice- President. While Portman is up for re-election in 2016, Ohio law does not prohibit a person from running for two Federal offices on the same ballot. You may recall, Congressman Paul Ryan did the same thing.

Bush recently said that he will shortly announce whether he plans to run for President, and Portman has recently announced that he is not running for President to focus on his re-election to the Senate. Of course, this does not preclude him from deciding in July of 2016 to accept an offer to run for Vice President.

Obama won both of these States in 2008 and 2012. In 2008, he won Ohio by 4.58 points, and 2012 he won the state by 2.98 points. In 2008, he won Florida by 2.81 points, and in 2012 he won the State by 0.87 points.

Based on those results, a home State candidacy is likely to put both of these States in play. Together, they have 67 electoral votes (Florida 47, Ohio 20). In 2012, without these States, Obama would have been 5 votes short of the required 270 electoral votes.

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As a regular feature, the NBC/WSJ survey asks respondents to rate their “feelings” toward various individuals and organizations on a scale ranging from “very positive” to “very negative,” as well as whether they don’t know the name and are unable to rate the individual or organization.

The following chart is based on data from the 11/14-17/14 NBC/WSJ survey.

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