December 12, 2014 11:59 AM
The 2014 election: A little more
The Winston Group recently made the following point. Of the 48% who rated the economy as “not so good” in 2014, 58% voted Republican and 41% voted Democrat, a spread of 17 points in favor of the Republicans. In 2012, when 45% had the “not so good” position, 55% favored the Democrats and 42% the Republicans, a 13 point spread.In a further analysis, the Winston Group reported on the ideological shift among the Parties in the last six national elections.
Based on the exit polls, David Winston and Myra Miller write in part:
“Republicans and Independents moved slightly farther to the right, but Democrats moved slightly to the left.”
“The 2014 elections also show a consolidation of independents as a center-right group, in part because of Republicans who have left the party to become independents. Based on the results from this election, the ideological composition of independents has moved from a leaning center right group to a solidly center- right group.”
“While the high water mark for the conservative composition of the Republican Party was 2010 (71%), 2014 marks a 4% net increase in conservatives (66%) in the party since 2004 (62%).”
“Democrats have moved from being a center-left party to a liberal party, with nearly one in two Democrats (48%) identifying themselves as liberals, a significant increase since 2008 (39%)”
| 2014 | 2012 | 2010 | 2008 | 2006 | 2004 | |
| Republican | ||||||
| Conservative | 66 | 65 | 71 | 64 | 60 | 62 |
| Moderate | 30 | 30 | 26 | 32 | 36 | 34 |
| Liberal | 14 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Independent | ||||||
| Conservative | 33 | 31 | 39 | 28 | 24 | 23 |
| Moderate | 50 | 50 | 47 | 54 | 57 | 56 |
| Liberal | 17 | 19 | 14 | 17 | 18 | 20 |
| Democrat | ||||||
| Conservative | 11 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| Moderate | 42 | 43 | 44 | 47 | 51 | 50 |
| Liberal | 48 | 46 | 43 | 39 | 38 | 39 |
Following the2014 election, only 36% have a favorable rating of the Democratic Party, the lowest score achieved by the Democrats at least since 1992. In the intervening period the Democrats have posted favorable ratings as high as 61%.
The Republicans, who in the fall of 2013 had scored their lowest favorable rating in the 1992-2014 period of 28%, jumped up to 42% in the post-2014 election survey. [Gallup 11/14]
When asked about the impact of President Obama on the 2014 election, one astute non-partisan observer of the election scene said, “When Obama gets up to speak, folks hit the mute button.”
