Looking Ahead to 2016 – Contest for President

On January 8, 2015, before a single candidate for President had formally announced his or her candidacy, a group of 12 Republicans, Democrats and Independents met in Aurora, Colorado, for a focus group under the auspices of Peter Hart and the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the U of Pennsylvania. (Most of what follows is excerpted from two excellent columns by Dan Balz of “The Washington Post,” published on January 10 and the other on September 6.)

“The participants made it clear that they were fed up with politics as usual. They were harsh in their judgements about most traditional politicians, the political establishment and the way Washington works.”

The names Donald Trump or Ben Carson or Bernie Sanders were never mentioned. The group was “especially critical of Jeb Bush,” “tepid toward Hillary Rodham Clinton.” “...They are underwhelmed by the prospect of a race pitting another Bush against another Clinton.”

“These voters distrust elected officials and are disgusted by what they regard as the privileged lives they lead. Bush and Clinton represent a political class that is seen as living lives apart from those they represent, people who are seen as out for themselves rather than for ordinary people.”

The name to which the group responded the most positively was Elizabeth Warren. She received positive comments from Democrats and Republicans. “Warren has struck a chord.”

After the focus group was completed and the participants had left the room, Peter Hart summed up what he had heard, “The political classes told us it’s going to be Bush against Clinton, but these people are miles away from that choice.” “Essentially what they’re telling us is, “I don’t trust these people. They’re part of an establishment that I don’t like.’”

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The following are a series of charts that provide basic information about the 2016 election and the candidates that I will be referring to in the balance of this section of the Watch. The charts are located at the end of the text.

1. The current list of candidates & those who may still enter the fray
2. Select polls between mid-June and today
3. Facebook
4. Looking back at 2008 and 2012 primary polls at this time
5. Money raised and spent through June 30, 2015
6. Primary/caucus dates as of now
7. The Primary Debates
8. The conventions and a little history going back to 1960

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There are presently 17 candidates who have announced that they are seeking the Republican nomination for President. [Chart 1]. This is the largest number of announced candidates for either Party in any Presidential election going back to the 1976 election.

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The Monmouth University Poll taken June 11-14, before Donald Trump announced his candidacy, showed him with 2% of the votes in the Republican primary. Leading in that survey were Carson – 11%, Walker – 10%, Bush and Rubio – 9%, and Huckabee – 8%.

Donald Trump announced his candidacy on June 16th in the midst of the NBC/WSJ survey June 14-18. It showed Trump with 1% of the vote. Leading in that survey were Bush – 22%, Walker – 17%, Rubio – 14%, and Carson – 11%. [Chart 2]

At that point most of the “wise” political folks did not give much credence to the idea that Trump was going to have the run he has, in fact, had so far. There were, however, two indicators that suggested that there might be more to his candidacy than met the eye.

Facebook decided to calculate the volume of conversation on its platform regarding each of the Presidential campaign announcements in the 24 hour period during which the announcement was made. (Interactions defined as likes, posts, comments, shares). [Chart 3]

It is no surprise that Hillary Clinton topped the list. 4.7 million people generated 10.1 million interactions. But, coming in second was Donald Trump, with 3.4 million people generating 6.4 million interactions. And, in a Fox News survey taken June 21-23, a week after his announcement, Trump had moved from 1 or 2% to 11%.

Trump hit 18% three weeks later, and a month after his initial announcement Trump was capturing 24% of the vote.

Trump interest has not slowed. In the Monmouth University survey taken August 31- September 2 he received 30% of the vote.

Perhaps an even more unexpected surge has been achieved by Dr. Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon who also has never occupied or run for political office. After limping along in 4th place through the end of July, Carson started to rise in mid-August, and hit second place, with 18% of the vote, at the end of August. No other candidate comes close.

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Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks, explained Trump’s appeal this way. “I don’t care what his actual positions are. I don’t care if he says the wrong thing. He says what’s on his mind. He gives honest answers rather than prepared answers. This is more important than anything any candidate has done in years.” [WP 7/29]

The same could be said of Ben Carson.

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The Democratic Contest

The Democratic contest has had surprises of its own. The early assumption was that Hillary Clinton would own the Democratic nomination. That remains the likely outcome.

However, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont has started to make it an interesting race. And Vice President Joe Biden has added a bit of intrigue as well. Sander’s is a dyed- in-the-wool socialist, who is technically an independent, but caucuses with the Democrats in the U.S. Senate.

Sanders’ agenda includes such items as increasing taxes on the wealthy, re- writing international trade agreements, doubling the minimum wage, boosting organized labor, and substantially expanding Federal government spending and regulatory powers. He would also go after the financial industry and fossil fuel energy companies.

As his campaign hit the road most observers were startled by the size of the crowds he generated, often in the tens of thousands.

Until recently Vice President Biden, who has been devastated by the death of his son, Beau Biden, had not given any signs of making the race. The common wisdom seemed to be that he would not run if Hillary Clinton was running.

However, as the Clinton campaign struggled to overcome problems caused by her use of a personal email server, and the rather stiff and controlled nature of her campaigning, Biden is said to be reconsidering. Recently, through a series of phone calls and visits, Biden is seeking the advice of a variety of Democrats. It seems that Biden’s single most important concern is the affect that the race will have on his family.

The recent NBC/Marist surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire have given Biden something more to consider.

In New Hampshire in general election matchups

Bush beat Clinton 48% to 43%
Clinton and Trump are essentially tied at 46% to 45%
Biden and Bush are tied at 45% to 46%
Biden beats Trump 50% to 41%

In Iowa in general election matchups

Bush beat Clinton 50% to 39%
Trump beat Clinton 48% to 43%
Bush beats Biden 46% to 44%
Biden beats Trump 49% to 45%

One of the ways that the Democratic contest has differed from the Republican contest is that many of the Republicans are attacking one another. Clinton and Sanders have avoided saying anything unkind about each other.

Nationally, in mid-June [Chart 2] Clinton led Sanders by 75% to 15%. Biden was not included in the survey. By mid-July one survey had Clinton leading Sanders by 59% to 19%, with Biden now included at 8%. A second survey a day or two later had Clinton at 63%, and Sanders at 14%, with Biden at 12%.

By mid-August a CNN/ORG poll had Clinton at 47%, Sanders at 29%, and Biden at 14%. By the end of August a Monmouth poll had Clinton at 42%, Biden at 22%, and Sanders at 20%.

The stories in Iowa and New Hampshire are quite different from each other.

In Iowa an NBC/Marist survey concluded on September 2nd has Clinton leading Sanders by 38% to 27%, with Biden picking up 20%. Six weeks earlier Clinton led Sanders by 49% to 25% with Biden at 10%. The trend in Iowa is quite similar to the national trend.

The story in New Hampshire is quite a bit different. Sanders currently leads Clinton by 41% to 32%, with Biden at 16%. This is a dramatic shift from six weeks earlier when Clinton led Sanders by 42% to 32%, with Biden at 12%.

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Just for kicks the WW looked at the last two Republican primary contests in 2012 and 2008. [Chart 4]

At this time in 2012 Rick Perry was well-established in first place with 28- 29% of the vote. Romney was running 2nd with 23% of the vote. Romney did finish first.

In 2008, Rudy Giuliani was solidly in first place, with Fred Thompson running a strong second. McCain won the nomination.

In the Democratic contest in 2008, Hillary Clinton was well ahead with 35- 44% of the vote, with Obama running second with 23-27% of the vote. Obama was the nominee. 

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The Money Race

Following the money is going to be particularly intriguing in 2016. In addition to money raised by the candidate and reported dollar-for-dollar to the Federal Election Commission, there are dozens of Super PACs raising money for individual candidates.

The important difference between the two campaign finance vehicles is that a regular campaign committee is limited to accepting no more than $2,700 for any election. The Super PACs can accept any amount of money.

The Super PACs are not allowed to ”coordinate” with a candidate or the candidate’s regular campaign committee. It is interesting to note that many of the Super PACs are being run by individuals who have previously been associated with the candidates they are supporting. And there is a way that a candidate is allowed to address a Super PAC by limiting the amount of money that is requested at that gathering.

Keep in mind that most of the figures in Chart 5 do not represent a full six months of activity because of the different times when each of the candidates commenced their campaigns. Also, one or more of the candidates may have spent time “helping” the Super PACs that are supporting them before they became formal candidates.

Hillary Clinton raised the most money in her regular campaign committee in the amount of $47.5 million. The Super PAC supporting Jeb Bush had the best record of any Super PAC, accumulating $103 million.

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Chart 6 – Primary and caucus dates

Chart 7 – Primary debate dates

Chart 8 – Location of national conventions and which Party’s nominee won the State in which the convention was held.

Of the Republican convention cities six States were won by the Republican nominee and eight were won by the Democratic nominee.

Of the Democratic convention cities seven States were won by the Republican nominee and seven States were won by the Democratic nominee.

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The Charts

1. The current list of real and potential candidates

On The Field – Candidate has filed with the Federal Election Commission; has announced that he or she is running; has announced that they are going to commence a formal candidacy; or has been particularly active in raising money or campaigning.

On the Bench – Individual has not gone so far as to be treated as “On the Field,” but is sounding off and making some moves.

Fallen by the Wayside –Candidate has been on the field, but has now left the field.

Announced – Not Going to Play - These individuals have specifically made clear that they are not going to be candidates.

On the Field



On the Bench



Fallen by the Wayside



Announced - Not Going to Play



2. Select polls between mid-June and today





3. Facebook and other social media

Facebook and other similar services play an ever-increasing role in elections, including the contest for President.

Below is a compilation of data released by Facebook. They tracked the volume of conversation on their platform for each of the Presidential candidates in the 24 hour period during which their campaign was announced. (Interactions = likes, posts, comments, shares)

Hillary Clinton - 4/12-13 = 4.7 million people generated 10.1 million interactions

Donald Trump - 6/16-17 = 3.4 million people generated 6.4 million interactions

Ted Cruz - 3/23-24 = 2.2 million people generated 5.7 million interactions

Rand Paul - 4/7-8 = 865,000 people generated 1.9 million interactions

Ben Carson - 5/4-5 = 847,000 people generated 1.5 million interactions

Marco Rubio - 4/13-14 = 695,000 people generated 1.3 million interactions

Scott Walker - 7/13-14 = 679,000 people generated 1.578 million interactions

Bernie Sanders - 4/30-5/1 = 592,000 people generated 1.2 million interactions

Jeb Bush - 6/15-16 = 493,000 people generated 849,000 interactions

Chris Christie - 7/30-7/1= 482,000 people generated 803,000 interactions

Mike Huckabee - 5/5-6 = 458,000 people generated 814,000 interactions

Rick Perry - 6/4-5 = 422,000 people generated 763,000 interactions

Bobby Jindal - 6/24-25 = 316,000 people generated 542,000 interactions

Carly Fiorina - 5/4-5 = 304,000 people generated 515,000 interactions

Rick Santorum - 5/27-28 = 169,000 people generated 286,000 interactions

John Kasich - 7/21-22 = 156,000people generated 261,000 interactions

Lindsey Graham - 6/1-2 = 84,000 people generated 142,000 interactions

Martin O’Malley - 5/30-31= 84,000 people generated 120,000 interactions

George Pataki - 5/28-29 = 59,000 people generated 81,000 interactions

Jim Webb - 7/2-3 = 49,000 people generated 81,000 interactions

Lincoln Chafee - 6/3-4 = 20,000 people generated 27,000 interactions

4. Looking back at the 2008 and 2012 primaries

2012 Presidential Election Republican Primary - Selected Polling Data



2008 Presidential Election Republican Primary - Selected Polling Data



2008 Presidential Election Democratic Primary Selected Polling Data



5. Campaign Finance Reports through June 30, 2015

Candidates who declared after 2nd Quarter Reports

Sources: Meet the Press with Chuck Todd, How Donald Trump Shrank the GOP Field, 7/16/2015; Wilson Andrews and Alicia Parlapiano, Which Presidential Candidates are Winning the Money Race so Far, New York Times, 7/16/2015; FEC reports, Independent Expenditure-Only Committees Reports, June 30, 2015.

*Candidates who oppose PACs and have rejected PAC support
**These PACs were created after the June 30th filing deadline.

NOTE: Candidates whose PACs do not have financial data filled in above did not have it available when the June 30th reports were filed.

6. Primary/Caucus dates

Here is the primary/nomination schedule as presently available.

Feb 1: Iowa caucuses
Feb 9: New Hampshire primary
Feb 20: Nevada caucuses
Feb 27: South Carolina primary
Feb. 23: Michigan (election law states that the primary should be held on the 4th Tues of February, but this might change)

All other States can hold their primaries any time between March 1 and the end of June, per Republican and Democratic National Committee guidelines.

The following is a tentative list (subject to change) of the remaining States.

March

1- Colorado caucuses, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, North Carolina
5- Louisiana
8- Alabama, Hawaii R caucuses, Mississippi, Ohio, Michigan
13- Puerto Rico
15- Florida, Illinois, Missouri
22- Arizona

April

5- Maryland, District of Columbia, Wisconsin
26- Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

May

3- Indiana
10- Nebraska, West Virginia
17- Kentucky, Oregon
24- Arkansas

June

7- California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
28- Utah

Conventions:

Republicans: July 18-21, Cleveland, Ohio
Democrats: July 25-28, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

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7. Presidential Primary Debates

Democrats:
There will be six Presidential primary debates. They will be held in in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and 2 other undecided locations. These debates will start fall of 2015.

Current planned Democratic primary debates:

1. CNN, October 13, 2015, Nevada
2. CBS News, November 14, 2015, Des Moines, Iowa
3. ABC News, December 19, 2015, Manchester, New Hampshire
4. NBC News, January17, 2015, Charleston, South Carolina
5. Univision , February or March 2016, Miami, Florida
6. PBS, February or March 2016, Wisconsin

Republicans:
The Republican National Committee is currently planning to sanction at least nine Presidential primary debates. They started this August in Ohio, and continue through March 2016, with the potential to add three more.

Current planned Republican primary debates:

1. Fox News, August 6, 2015, Ohio - Done
2. CNN, September 16, 2015, California
3. CNBC, October 28, 2015, Colorado
4. Fox Business, November 2015, Wisconsin
5. CNN, December 15, 2015, Nevada
6. Fox News, January 2016, Iowa
7. ABC News, February 6, 2016, New Hampshire
8. CBS News, February 26, 2016, South Carolina
9. NCB/Telemundo, February 2016, Florida

Three others are pending:
10. Fox News, March 2016, location TBD
11. CNN, March 2016, location TBD
12. Conservative Media Debate, date TBD, location TBD

8. Presidential Convention Locations and the Winners of those States

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