Looking Ahead to 2016: Contest for President

Note: If you think you know where the GOP nominating process will end up, you are smarter than I am, so please drop me a line. Short of some major untoward event it seems most likely that Hillary Clinton will capture the Democratic banner.

Quoting one of my favorite pundits, Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report, “summer is for dating and winter is for mating.”

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The country is evenly divided as to whether it would be better for the country to have a Republican (40%) or a Democrat (41%) as the next President. [NBC/WSJ 10/15]

In March 2015, Republican/Republican-leaning voters “valued experience and a proven record over new ideas” in Presidential candidates by 57% to 36%. By the end of September there had been an enormous shift among the same Republicans. Now, by 65% to 36%, they prefer that Presidential candidates have “new ideas” rather than “ experience and a proven record.”

Democrats, on the other hand, had little change during this same period, and any change it did have swung the other way. In March, 49% of Democrats preferred “new ideas and a different approach,” while 46% preferred “experience and a proven record.” By September only 42% chose the latter.

In September 2007, 69% of Republicans/Republican-leaning voters had thought “ a lot/some” about the Presidential candidates. In September 2015, 81% of the same voters had thought “a lot/some” about the Presidential candidates.

Among Democrats in September 2007, 72% had thought “a lot/some” about the candidates. There was little change in 2015, when 71% had thought “a lot/some” about the candidates. [PEW Research 10/2/15]

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A total of 82% would be enthusiastic (28%) or comfortable (54%) with a woman as a candidate for President. On the other hand, only 34% would be enthusiastic (11%) or comfortable (23%) with a person who is “not a politician and has no previous elected experience in government.” 65% would be very uncomfortable (29%) or have some reservations (35%) with the non-politician. [NBC/WSJ 10/15]

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In late October, Peter Hart and Corrie Hunt did a Focus Group in Indianapolis, Indiana, on behalf of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

There were 12 GOP primary voters (11 of them hardcore, staunch Republicans.) “Participants represented supporters of the major candidates.”

The following are excerpts from a summary memorandum of the focus group, prepared by Peter and Corrie.

“Voters are paying attention and are much more into the process than in previous political years. And while they are still at the “sound bite’ level of knowledge, their awareness and perceptions of the major candidates are quite formed.”

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“At the heart of this discussion is the word ‘temperament.’ These Republican primary voters are angry and unhappy with the direction of the country, the leadership and performance of the Congress, and especially with President Obama. Yet, behind this, they still are searching for the right person to be the Republican nominee.”

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“Behind all of this is a sense that these people have done a better job of figuring out what they are against rather than what they are for. Part of the challenge that emerges for Republicans is that there appears to be nothing positive around which they can unite. Much of this discussion was spent railing against what is wrong rather than searching for a uniting vision of what they want in their nominee. A uniting leader may yet emerge, but for now the consensus is around a quiet man vs a loudmouth.”

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On the specific issue of gay marriage, Hart and Hunt wrote the following:

“In light of the myriad other pressing issues facing the country, when asked which issues they believe Republicans should stay quiet about and just move on from, Republican primary voters decisively choose gay marriage. Eight in 12 focus group participants say they want Republicans to “just shut up” about same-sex marriage. In a state that has seen its share of controversy around gay marriage, these Republican primary voters say we have so many other bigger problems to fix such as healthcare, terrorism, and the economy. There is a sense that, for the most part it does not affect their lives directly and there is no point in arguing about it anymore.”

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In a recent email for general distribution, Alex Castellanos presented the Republican side of the chart below. WW added the data about Democrats.

Castellanos makes the point that no Republican “nominee in modern history has failed to win either Iowa or New Hampshire.”

WW then looked to see whether the same “rule” might apply to Democratic nominees. It does not. It did not apply to the Democratic nominees in 1968, 1972 and 1992.

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The following are a series of charts that provide basic information about the 2016 election and the candidates.

1. The list of current candidates/those who have left the field /those who chose not to run

2. Select polls between September and the end of October

3. Looking back at 2008 and 2012 primary polls at this time

4. Money raised and spent by the candidates through September 30, 2015

5. Primary/caucus dates as of now

6. The Primary Debates

7. The conventions

8. The general election

1. The current list of candidates

The 2016 campaign began with a series of candidates who, over time, registered with the Federal Election Commission. Ultimately, there were 17 candidates seeking the Republican nomination and 5 candidates seeking the Democratic nomination.

Currently, there are 15 Republican and 3 Democratic candidates who remain on the field.

On The Field – Candidate has filed with the Federal Election Commission; has announced that he or she is running; has announced that they are going to commence a formal candidacy; or has been particularly active in raising money or campaigning.

Fallen by the Wayside – Candidate has been on the field, but has now left.

Announced – Not Going to Play - These individuals have specifically made it clear that they are not going to be candidates.

On the Field



Fallen by the Wayside



Announced – Not Going to Play



* Jim Webb is considering a run as an independent.

2. Select polls, September- End of October 2015

The following is a selection of national polls for the months of September and October. Donald Trump led every national poll and for several months preceding until the CBS/NYT poll of October 21-25, followed by the NBC/WSJ survey of October 25-29.

During this period Hillary Clinton has had leads ranging from 7 points to 20 points over the other Democratic candidates.

Republicans



Democrats



Source: RealClearPolitics

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3. Looking back at the 2008 and 2012 primaries

Once again, WW has looked at the last two Republican primary contests in 2008 and 2012.

By this time in 2012 Rick Perry had lost his lead and Romney had moved into 1st place.

In 2008, Rudy Giuliani was still solidly in first place, with John McCain in 2nd place, and Fred Thompson running 3rd. Eventually, McCain won the nomination.

By this time in the Democratic contest in 2008, Hillary Clinton was well ahead with 49%. Obama was running second, with 26% of the vote. Obama became the nominee.

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4. Money raised and spent through September 30th

The following focuses on fundraising and spending by candidate committees, organized and registered under the Federal Election Commission. (Super PAC fundraising and spending is not included in this analysis since Super PACs only report every six months. Data for the Super PACs through June 20 is in a separate chart below.)

Hillary Clinton raised the most during the 3rd quarter of 2015 – $29.9 million – and the most money since the beginning of the campaign – $76 million. She also spent the most in the 3rd quarter – $25.8 million and the most during the campaign – $43 million. She had $33 million on hand as of 9/30.

Her only real competitor, Bernie Sanders, has raised $40 million and spent $11.2 million since the campaign began, and had $27 million on hand as of 9/30.

The assumption is that Clinton has invested considerable funds organizing in States that are not immediately on the horizon, with a goal of not making one of the same mistakes her campaign made in the 2008 campaign.

In the Republican primary, Ben Carson raised the most money through September 30th, taking in $31.2 million. Next on the list of money raised was Ted Cruz at $26.2million. Jeb Bush was next in line at $24.8 million. The only other Republican who crossed the $20 million mark was Marco Rubio, at $21.1 million.

As the 4th quarter starts, Cruz has $13.8 million on hand, Carson has $11.2 million on hand, Rubio has $11 million available, and Bush has $10.3 million.

The biggest spender by far was Carson, who apparently spent considerable funds on fundraising.

As for Super PAC fundraising, the clear leader through June 30th was the PAC supporting Jeb Bush, which took in $108.5 million. The next most successful Super PAC is the one supporting Ted Cruz, which took in $38.4 million, followed by the Super PAC supporting Rubio, which took in $17.3 million.

3rd Quarter Reports: On October 15, candidates filed reports with the Federal Election Commission on their finances through Sept. 30, 2015.



Candidates who have dropped out



Money Donated to Candidate’s PACs thru 6/30/2015
(These PACs are only required to report twice a year. The next disclosure period began on July 1st and ends on December 31st.)

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5. Primary/Caucus dates

The first caucus in Iowa is 86 days from the date of this issue of the WW. The WW date of issue is 95 days to the first primary in New Hampshire.

The following is a tentative list (subject to change) of the caucuses and primaries.

February

Feb 1: Iowa caucuses
Feb 9: New Hampshire primary
Feb 20: Nevada caucus (Dem), South Carolina primary (GOP)
Feb. 23: Nevada caucus (GOP)
Feb 27: South Carolina primary (Dem)

March

March 1 (Super Tuesday): Alabama, Alaska (GOP), Arkansas, Colorado caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucuses, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia
March 5: Kansas caucus, Kentucky (GOP caucus), Louisiana, Nebraska (Dem caucus)
March 8: Hawaii (GOP caucus), Mississippi, Michigan
March 13: Puerto Rico (GOP)
March 15: Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio
March 22: Arizona, Utah
March 26: Alaska caucus (Dem), Hawaii caucus (Dem)

April

April 5: Wisconsin
April 19: New York
April 26: Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island

May

May 3: Indiana
May 10: Nebraska (GOP primary), West Virginia
May 17: Kentucky (Dem primary), Oregon

June

June 5: Puerto Rico (Dem)
June 7: California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, South Dakota
June 14: Washington, DC

*States with no firm dates: North Dakota, Idaho, Maine, Washington, Wyoming

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6. Presidential Primary Debates

The discussion of how the Presidential primary debates are organized is usually pretty mundane. Every now and then there is a complaint about whether one participant was given a time advantage over another, and a periodic complaint about one of the moderators.

This is not the case this cycle however. There has been a major complaint by the Republican candidates, based principally on the debate run by CNBC on October 28th.

Representatives from most of the Republican candidates/campaigns met recently, without any staff from the Republican National committee, to discuss the debates going forward. It is clear that the candidates want more say in the structure and operation of the debates.

Items discussed include the length of the debates, opening and closing statements, equality of time given to each candidate, and a variety of other matters, including controlling of the temperature in the debate room. 67 degrees is apparently the preferred temperature.

It is likely that the candidates will end up with greater responsibility for negotiations with individual debate sponsors about the format.

There is in circulation among the campaigns a letter that will be sent to debate sponsors, noting the desires of the candidates. As if to prove once more that Trump marches to his own drummer, his campaign is intending to negotiate with the networks on its own, regardless of what the other campaigns do.

Subsequent to this meeting, at least Kasich and Christie have announced that they have no interesting in signing such a letter regardless of the content.

The impact of each debate on the election is shown in charts below, reflecting the results of polling before and after each debate, as well as the number of viewers for each debate.

Republicans:

The Republican National Committee is currently planning to sanction at least nine Presidential primary debates. They started in August in Ohio and continue through March 2016, with the potential to add three more.

Current planned Republican primary debates:

1. Fox News, August 6, 2015, Ohio – Done
2. CNN, September 16, 2015, California- Done
3. CNBC, October 28, 2015, Colorado - Done
4. Fox Business, November 10, 2015, Wisconsin
5. CNN, December 15, 2015, Nevada
6. Fox News, January 2016, Iowa
7. ABC News, February 6, 2016, New Hampshire
8. CBS News, February 13, 2016, South Carolina
9. NCB/Telemundo, February 26, 2016, Florida

Three others are pending:
Fox News, March 2016, location TBD
CNN, March 10, 2016, location TBD
Conservative Media Debate, date TBD, location TBD

Polling before and after Republican Debates

Democrats:

There will be six Presidential primary debates. They will be held in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and Wisconsin. The first debate was held by CNN October 13th.

Current planned Democratic primary debates:

1. CNN, October 13, 2015, Nevada- Done
2. CBS News, November 14, 2015, Des Moines, Iowa
3. ABC News, December 19, 2015, Manchester, New Hampshire
4. NBC News, January17, 2015, Charleston, South Carolina
5. Univision , February or March 2016, Miami, Florida
6. PBS, February or March 2016, Wisconsin


Polling before and after the first Democratic Debate

The size of the audience for each debate follows.

Republican - Fox News, August 6, 2015, Ohio – 24 million viewers

Republican - CNN, September 16, 2015, California- 23 million viewers

Democrat - CNN, October 13, 2015 – 15.8 million viewers

Republican – CNBC October 28, 2015 – 14 million viewers

7. The Conventions

Republicans: July 18-21, Cleveland, Ohio

Democrats: July 25-28, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

8. General Election

Early polls are generally meaningless, so the following should be taken with a whole bag of “grains of salt.”

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