Looking Ahead to 2016 – Contest for President

In mid-November Americans were asked what “is the single most important issue in your choice for President?” A specific series of options were presented. Topping the list were the economy (33%), terrorism (28%), healthcare (13%), immigration (10%), and tax policy (5%). [ABC/WP 11/19]

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In mid-November, Peter Hart and Corrie Hunt did two focus groups in Columbus, Ohio, on behalf of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania. One of the two focus groups was made up of all men; the other all women.

The locale was Columbus’s Franklin County. Because this is a location that is seen as a must-win for Democrats, the composition of both groups was weighted toward Democrats (Clinton and Sanders supporters). However, 6 of the dozen participants in each group identified as Republican or Independent.

The following is a short summary of a much longer report prepared after these focus groups. If you would like to read the full reports and see the video, you can find them on the Annenberg Public Policy Center here.

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The assessment of Hillary Clinton is pretty clear and simple -- these voters respect Hillary Clinton for her experience, understanding, and knowledge about policy, and especially for being a person who can deal on the international front. She has been tested, and they describe her as having a backbone of steel, titanium or iron. Nobody underestimates her professional abilities or how formidable she is.

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From this perspective one does not get a sense of a glass ceiling preventing Hillary Clinton from becoming the first woman President. Given the times, one would think she is a sure-fire recipe for victory.

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Yet, strong reservations also emerge when these voters consider her candidacy. They openly discuss their personal reasons for questioning a Hillary Clinton Presidency. There is a sort of “glass curtain” between Clinton and these voters. Many feel that they cannot relate to her or trust her. Even her supporters express uneasiness about their ability to connect with her.

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The voters perceive a glass curtain or invisible shield between them and Hillary Clinton, through which they can see and study her, but they cannot touch or relate to her.

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An important observation is that voters’ perception of a female President (in general) bringing the quality of “inclusiveness” to the table does not translate to Hillary Clinton; on the contrary, she is perceived as someone who is polarizing and surrounded by controversy.

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In the end one is left with a very divided profile of Hillary Clinton: admiration and respect for her professional abilities, knowledge and strength....But the comfort level of her personally has not advanced much from the day she first contemplated seeking the Presidency in 2016.

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At this stage, one year before the election, the challenge facing Hillary Clinton is to find a way to relate to voters; and more important, provide a way to relate to her.

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Views and Attitudes toward the Republican Candidates

(WW editorial note: Keep in mind that these focus groups focused primarily on Hillary Clinton and occurred before the recent rise of Ted Cruz and the apparent slippage of Ben Carson.)

.... while Hillary Clinton excels on experience and leadership in these voters’ eyes, they tend to appreciate more the personal qualities of the leading Republican candidates.

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Trump may captivate audiences of Republican primary voters, but thus far he has failed to win over this more ideologically mixed group of voters. They already feel they have a sense of who he is and what he stands for, and what they know they do not like. Trump’s “loudmouth” style has alienated these voters and very few can see themselves supporting him for President. More so than perhaps any other candidate, many say they definitely would NOT support him. He is a “bully,” “racist,” “arrogant,” “hateful,” and “inappropriate” in their eyes.

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Carson is less of a known quantity among this mix of voters. Those who like him say he is compassionate, and they praise his intelligence and calm demeanor. His gentle and low-key demeanor reminds his supporters of a “sweet grandpa that you would want to invite over.”

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It is the demeanor and combustible personality of Donald Trump that scares people; it is the lack of knowledge and sophistication on issues that frightens of voters from Dr. Carson.

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Perhaps the most ominous news for Carson is that these voters do not see him as ready for the job. When they think about all the responsibilities of the Presidential office, 21 of the 24 respondents say they did NOT feel comfortable with Carson at the helm.

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Jeb Bush has the notable position as the only one of the Republican candidates who these voters feel is ready for the job. Yet they do not want him as the next President...But Bush himself does not have a strong presence or personality for these voters; he remains amorphous without a clear identity.

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The greatest challenge for Jeb Bush may be that voters are not curious about him anymore. He must redefine himself with voters who have already moved on or lost interest.

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Rubio has not yet broken through in this middle-American city, but he shows serious potential among these voters. He is still somewhat of an unknown quantity among these voters, and unlike the other leading Republican candidates, many say they still want to learn more about Rubio.

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The Republican candidates were not at the center of these focus groups’ discussion, but the overall impression was of a Party that had many candidates, but nobody that appeared to be a natural leader for the times. It would take little to start a groundswell for a GOP candidate that can demonstrate that they have both the temperament and wisdom to lead. For now, none has emerged. [End]

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There is particular attention being paid in the Republican primary to the role that Evangelical Protestants will play in the primaries and in the general election. While most, if not all, of the Republican candidates are paying attention to this group, Ted Cruz seems most intent.

PEW Research estimates that there are 62 million people in the U.S. that adhere to churches in the evangelical Protestant tradition.

In 2014, PEW estimated that among evangelicals, 56% are Republican/lean Republican, 28% Democrat/lean Democratic, and 16% don’t lean either way.

A Public Opinion Strategies survey found that in the 2014 election, self-identified conservative Christians made up 32% of the electorate and 86% of them voted Republican, while 12% voted Democrat.

In the 2004, 2008, and 2012 Presidential elections, the vast majority of Evangelicals voted as follows:

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The following are a series of charts that provide basic information about the 2016 election and the candidates.

1. The list of current candidates/those who have left the field /those who chose not to run

2. Select national polls

3. Select state polls

4. The money game

5. Primary/caucus dates and state delegate numbers and allocation

6. The Primary Debates

7. The conventions

1. The current list of candidates

The 2016 campaign began with a series of candidates who, over time, registered with the Federal Election Commission. Ultimately there were 17 candidates seeking the Republican nomination and 5 candidates seeking the Democratic nomination.

Currently, there are 14 Republican and 3 Democratic candidates who remain on the field.

On The Field – Candidate has filed with the Federal Election Commission; has announced that he or she is running; has announced that they are going to commence a formal candidacy; or has been particularly active in raising money or campaigning.

Fallen by the Wayside –Candidate has been on the field, but has now left.

Announced – Not Going to Play - These individuals have specifically made it clear that they are not going to be candidates.

On the Field



Fallen by the Wayside



Announced – Not Going to Play



* Jim Webb is considering a run as an independent.

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2. Select polls, Late October - Early December

The following is a selection of national polls for the months of October and November.

During this period Hillary Clinton has had leads ranging from 18 points to 30 points over the other Democratic candidates. Trump has had leads of 1point to 20 points.

Republicans



Democrats



Source: RealClearPolitics

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3. Select state polls

(Republican lists include only those candidates scoring 5% or better.)

Iowa





New Hampshire





South Carolina

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4. Money raised and spent since September 30th

Since the end of the 3rd quarter, September 30, there are only odds and ends available about the income, expenditures, and cash balances of the various campaigns, PACs, and Super PACs in the 4th quarter. Complete information will next be available in January, as late as January 31, 2016.

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5. Primary/Caucus dates and state delegate numbers and allocation

Summary of the delegate allocation process written by Josh Putnam, reporter for the Washington Post:

“On the Democratic side, the national party mandates a proportional allocation of the delegates apportioned to each state. The majority of states, in turn, utilize the results of their primaries or caucuses at both the statewide and congressional district level to allocate and bind those delegates to the candidates who clear a threshold of the vote — which can be set no higher than 15 percent — in those political units. If Hillary Clinton wins 60 percent of the vote statewide in the South Carolina primary, she would receive around 60 percent of the at-large and pledged party leader delegates. If she wins 60 percent of the vote in one of South Carolina’s congressional districts, she would receive around 60 percent of the delegates apportioned to that district.

“The Republican National Committee is taking a similar approach for the states with primaries and caucuses that fall in the so-called “proportionality window,” defined as the first two weeks of March for 2016. The only difference is that the RNC allows the threshold for receiving any delegates to be set as high as 20 percent either statewide or in congressional districts.

“The RNC also allows a state party to institute a threshold for a candidate to receive all of the at-large and bonus delegates. In those states that set such thresholds, if a candidate wins a majority of the vote statewide or in a congressional district, that candidate would be eligible to be allocated all of the delegates apportioned to that political unit.

“After March 14, state parties in the Republican process have the freedom to set their delegate allocation rules as they see fit. States can institute a proportional rule, a winner-take-all rule, or some hybrid. The differences between proportional and hybrid plans are typically so subtle that they do not affect the delegate count.

If states with contests after March 14 adopt a winner-take-all rule, that could create a de facto nominee sooner. However, in 2012, there was no such rush to winner-take-all rules among states with contests after the proportionality window.”

(The above is from The Washington Post’s Josh Putnam, "Everything you need to know about how the presidential primary works," 5/12/15.)

Here is the primary/nomination schedule as presently available:

Also included are the number of delegates assigned to each Party in each State and how the delegates will be allocated. The DNC mandates a proportional allocation for all States. The RNC allows States more flexibility.

Definitions for Republican Allocation of Delegates:

Conv: State will bind delegates to the national convention at a State/territory convention. Other conventions will leave the delegation unbound.

Prop: State will proportionally allocate delegates based either on the Statewide primary/caucus vote or on the combination of the Statewide and Congressional district votes.

Prop w/ Trigger: State will follow above proportional rules, but allows for a winner-take-all allocation if a candidate wins a majority of the vote Statewide or at the Congressional district level.

Hybrid: State will follow some form of winner-take-most plan (i.e., winner-take-all by Congressional district) or directly elects delegates on the primary ballot.

Winner-take-all: State will award all delegates to the plurality winner of the primary or caucus.

The following is the tentative list (subject to change):

February

Feb 1:
- Iowa caucuses - (52D - Prop) (30R - Prop)

Feb 9:
- New Hampshire primary - (32D - Prop) (23R - Prop)

Feb 20:
- Nevada Dem caucuses - (43D - Prop)
- South Carolina GOP primary - (50R - Hybrid)

Feb. 23:
- Nevada GOP caucuses - (30R - Prop)

Feb 27:
- South Carolina Dem primary - (59D - Prop)

March

March 1 (Super Tuesday):
- Alabama - (58D - Prop) (50R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Alaska GOP - (28R - Prop)
- Arkansas - (37D - Prop) (40R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Colorad - caucuses - (79D - Prop) (37R - Conv)
- Georgia - (116D - Prop) (76R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Massachusetts - (116D - Prop) (42R - Prop)
- Minnesota caucuses - (93D - Prop) (38R - Prop)
- Oklahoma - (42D - Prop) (43R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Tennessee - (76D - Prop) (58R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Texas - (252D - Prop) (155R - Propw/Trigger)
- Vermont - (26D - Prop) (16R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Virginia - (110D - Prop) (49R - Prop)

March 5:
- Kansas caucuses - (37D - Prop) (40R - Prop)
- Kentucky GOP caucuses - (45R - Prop)
- Louisiana - (58D - Prop) (47R - Prop)
- Maine GOP caucuses - (23R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Nebraska Dem caucuses - (30D - Prop)

March 6:
- Maine Dem caucuses - (30D - Prop)

March 8:
- Hawaii GOP caucuses - (19R - Prop)
- Idaho - GOP primary - (32R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Michigan - (148D - Prop) (59R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Mississippi - (41D - Prop) (40R - Prop)

March 12:
- Washington, DC (GOP convention) - (19R - Prop)

March 15:
- Florida - (246D - Prop) (99R - Winner take All)
- Illinois - (182D - Prop) (69R - Hybrid)
- Missouri - (84D - Prop) (52R - Hybrid)
- North Carolina - (121D - Prop) (72R - Prop)
- Ohio - (159D - Prop) (66R - Winner take All)

March 22:
- Arizona - (77D - Prop) (58R - Winner take All)
- Idaho Dem caucuses - (27D - Prop)
- Utah caucuses - (37D - Prop) (40R - Prop w/ Trigger)

March 26:
- Alaska Dem caucuses - (18D - Prop)
- Hawaii Dem caucuses - (33D - Prop)
- Washington Dem caucuses - (118D - Prop)

April

April 5: - Wisconsin - (96D - Prop) (42R - Hybrid)
- Wyoming Dem - (18D - Prop)

April 19: - New York - (291D - Prop) (95R - Prop w/ Trigger)

April 26:
- Connecticut - (70D - Prop) (28R - Hybrid)
- Delaware - (31D - Prop) (16R - Winner take All)
- Maryland - (118D - Prop) (38R - Hybrid)
- Pennsylvania - (210D - Prop) (71R - Hybrid)
- Rhode Island - (33D - Prop) (19R - Prop)

May

May 3: - Indiana - (92D - Prop) (57R - Hybrid)

May 10:
- Nebraska GOP primary - (36R - Winner take All)
- West Virginia - (37D - Prop) (34R - Hybrid)

May 17:
- Kentucky Dem primary - (61D - Prop)
- Oregon - (73D - Prop) (28R - Prop)

May 24:
- Washington GOP - (44R - Prop)

June

June 7:
- California - (546D - Prop) (172R - Hybrid)
- Montana - (28D - Prop) (27R - Winner take All)
- New Jersey - (142D - Prop) (51R - Winner take All)
- New Mexico - (43D - Prop) (24R - Prop)
- South Dakota - (25D - Prop) (29R - Winner take All)
- North Dakota Dem - (23D - Prop)

June 14:
- Washington, DC Dems - (46D - Prop)

States that the RNC reports will not hold Presidential preference votes in 2016:

- North Dakota - (28R - Conv)
- Wyoming - (29R - Conv)

Sources: RNC website, Balletopedia, US Presidential Election News

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6. Presidential Primary Debates

Republicans

The Republican National Committee is currently planning to sanction at least nine and possibly twelve Presidential primary debates. Four have already been held in Ohio, California, Colorado, and Wisconsin. The last debate for 2015 will be in Nevada on December 15, 2015

Current planned Republican primary debates:

1. Fox News, August 6, 2015, Ohio – Completed

2. CNN, September 16, 2015, California - Completed

3. CNBC, October 28, 2015, Colorado - Completed

4. Fox Business, November 10, 2015, Wisconsin - Completed

5. CNN, December 15, 2015, Nevada

6. Fox News, January 2016, Iowa

7. ABC News, February 6, 2016, New Hampshire

8. CBS News, February 13, 2016, South Carolina

9. NBC/Telemundo, February 26, 2016, Florida

Three others are pending:

Fox News, March 2016, location TBD

CNN, March 10, 2016, location TBD

Conservative Media Debate, date TBD, location TBD

Polling before and after the 2nd , 3rd and 4th Republican Debate

Democrats

There will be six Presidential primary debates. Two have already been held in Nevada and Iowa. The last debate for 2015 will be in New Hampshire on December 19th.

Current planned Democratic primary debates:

1. CNN, October 13, 2015, Nevada - Completed
2. CBS News, November 14, 2015, Des Moines, Iowa - Completed
3. ABC News, December 19, 2015, Manchester, New Hampshire
4. NBC News, January17, 2015, Charleston, South Carolina
5. Univision , February or March 2016, Miami, Florida
6. PBS, February or March 2016, Wisconsin

Polling before and after the 1st and 2nd Democratic Debates

The size of the television audience for each debate has steadily declined.

Republican - Fox News, August 6, 2015, Ohio – 24 million viewers
Republican - CNN, September 16, 2015, California - 23 million viewers
Democrat - CNN, October 13, 2015 – 15.8 million viewers
Republican – CNBC, October 28, 2015 – 14 million viewers
Republican – Fox Business News, November 10, 2015 – 13.5 million viewers
Democrat – CBS/WSJ, November 14, 2015 - 8.5 million viewers

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7. The Conventions

- Republicans: July 18-21, Cleveland, Ohio
- Democrats: July 25-28, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

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