Looking Ahead to 2016 – Contest for President

The 2016 Presidential campaign may well be described as “never a dull moment.” The New York Times has reported that Michael Bloomberg is again considering an independent race for President. He has instructed his advisers to draw up plans for a campaign this year. According to the article, Bloomberg’s thinking is driven by the possibility that the final candidates will be Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. [NYT- on line – 1/23/16]

A top advisor to former Mayor Bloomberg had this to say, as reported in Mike Allen’s Playbook, on January 23. The former NYC Mayor “has become increasingly concerned about the tenor, tone and substance of both parties.”

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The campaign will also be remembered by the rise and fall of Dr. Ben Carson.

Whether or not he ends up winning the Republican nomination and the White House, he will have changed the “rules” of Presidential campaigning.

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By 46% to 43%, Americans would prefer that a Democrat be elected President. Roughly three-quarters of the Democrats and three-quarters of the Republicans feel strongly about their preferences.

When thinking about the coming election, 61% believe we should be looking for a President who will bring greater changes to current policies, even if he or she is less experienced and tested. 36% opt for a person who is more experienced and tested.

33% of Republicans say they will vote in their State’s primary, while 27% of Democrats hold that view. This is the same number of Republicans that held this view last month. Among Democrats this is a drop from the 33% who held this position last month. [NBC/WSJ 1/13/16]

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In the most recent NBC/WSJ survey (1/13/16) Republican and Democratic primary voters were asked how well each of several statements applies to them. They were asked to rate each one from 10 – 1. A score of 10 represents a description that is perfect for you and a score of 1 represents a description that is totally wrong for you. [WW has selected 4 statements which show up on both the list rated by Republicans and the list rated by Democrats.]

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In his January 15th column, Charlie Cook offers a perspective on the current Republican contest. The following is an excerpt.

“Finally, there is the argument that has been made repeatedly in this column-that once these angry populists have finished venting their spleens, once they feel their voices have been heard, they will switch to a more plausible vehicle for their discontent, to a candidate that they could, in fact, envision in the White House Situation Room with a finger on the proverbial nuclear button, someone whose temperament and judgement might be on firmer ground.

“It is worth remembering that 94% of the 2,472 Republican convention delegates are not from the February states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada; these delegates are picked on or after March 1, and the winner-take-all States don’t come online until Florida and Ohio on March 15. Fifty-eight percent of delegates are picked in March, 16 percent in April, and 8 percent in May, with the final 12 percent in early June. It’s a long slog to the nomination.

“In short, take a deep breath and beware of talking heads behaving as if their hair is on fire. This process only starts beginning in three weeks with Iowa and doesn’t start in earnest until March 1.”

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35% of registered voters think that Hillary Clinton would be a great (11%) or good (24%) President. 30% describe Bernie Sanders as a good President, with 11% describing him as great.

31% think Donald Trump would be a great or good President, and 28% think that about Ted Cruz.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, 28% think that Hillary Clinton would be a terrible President, while another 16% say she would be a poor President. 17% say Sanders would be a terrible President, while an additional 18% said he would be a poor President.

Trump takes the cake, with 38% saying he would be a terrible President and an additional 14% saying he would be a poor President, a total of 52%. [Pew 1/20/16]

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The following are a series of charts that provide basic information about the 2016 election and the candidates.

1. The list of current candidates/those who have left the field /those who chose not to run

2. Select national polls

3. Select state polls

4. The money game

5. Primary/caucus dates and state delegate numbers and allocation

6. The Primary Debates

7. The conventions

1. The current list of candidates

Twelve is the number of candidates still seeking the Republican nomination Three Democrats continue to seek the Democratic nomination.

On The Field – Candidate has filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Fallen by the Wayside –Candidate has been on the field, but has now left.

On the Field



Fallen by the Wayside



* Jim Webb is considering a run as an independent.

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2. Select polls, early January through 3rd week of January

The following is a selection of national polls for the month of January.

Republicans



*Jim Gilmore is still in the race but was not included in RCP polling

Democrats



Source: RealClearPolitics

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3. Select state polls

(Republican lists include only those candidates scoring 5% or better.)

Iowa





New Hampshire





South Carolina

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4. Money raised and spent since September 30th

The amounts raised and spent will not be available until January 31, 2016.

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5. Primary/Caucus dates and state delegate numbers and allocation

Included are the number of delegates assigned to each Party in each State and how the delegates will be allocated. The DNC mandates a proportional allocation for all States. The RNC allows States more flexibility.

Definitions for Republican Allocation of Delegates:

Conv: State will bind delegates to the national convention at a State/territory convention. Other conventions will leave the delegation unbound.

Prop: State will proportionally allocate delegates based either on the Statewide primary/caucus vote or on the combination of the Statewide and Congressional district votes.

Prop w/ Trigger: State will follow above proportional rules, but allows for a winner-take-all allocation if a candidate wins a majority of the vote Statewide or at the Congressional district level.

Hybrid: State will follow some form of winner-take-most plan (i.e., winner-take-all by Congressional district) or directly elects delegates on the primary ballot.

Winner-take-all: State will award all delegates to the plurality winner of the primary or caucus.

The following is the tentative list (subject to change):

February

Feb 1:
- Iowa caucuses - (52D - Prop) (30R - Prop)

Feb 9:
- New Hampshire primary - (32D - Prop) (23R - Prop)

Feb 20:
- Nevada Dem caucuses - (43D - Prop)
- South Carolina GOP primary - (50R - Hybrid)

Feb. 23:
- Nevada GOP caucuses - (30R - Prop)

Feb 27:
- South Carolina Dem primary - (59D - Prop)

March

March 1 (Super Tuesday):
- Alabama - (58D - Prop) (50R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Alaska GOP - (28R - Prop)
- Arkansas - (37D - Prop) (40R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Colorado caucuses - (79D - Prop) (37R - Conv)
- Georgia - (116D - Prop) (76R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Massachusetts - (116D - Prop) (42R - Prop)
- Minnesota caucuses - (93D - Prop) (38R - Prop)
- Oklahoma - (42D - Prop) (43R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Tennessee - (76D - Prop) (58R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Texas - (252D - Prop) (155R - Propw/Trigger)
- Vermont - (26D - Prop) (16R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Virginia - (110D - Prop) (49R - Prop)

March 5:
- Kansas caucuses - (37D - Prop) (40R - Prop)
- Kentucky GOP caucuses - (45R - Prop)
- Louisiana - (58D - Prop) (47R - Prop)
- Maine GOP caucuses - (23R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Nebraska Dem caucuses - (30D - Prop)

March 6:
- Maine Dem caucuses - (30D - Prop)

March 8:
- Hawaii GOP caucuses - (19R - Prop)
- Idaho - GOP primary - (32R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Michigan - (148D - Prop) (59R - Prop w/ Trigger)
- Mississippi - (41D - Prop) (40R - Prop)

March 12:
- Washington, DC (GOP convention) - (19R - Prop)

March 15:
- Florida - (246D - Prop) (99R - Winner take All)
- Illinois - (182D - Prop) (69R - Hybrid)
- Missouri - (84D - Prop) (52R - Hybrid)
- North Carolina - (121D - Prop) (72R - Prop)
- Ohio - (159D - Prop) (66R - Winner take All)

March 22:
- Arizona - (77D - Prop) (58R - Winner take All)
- Idaho Dem caucuses - (27D - Prop)
- Utah caucuses - (37D - Prop) (40R - Prop w/ Trigger)

March 26:
- Alaska Dem caucuses - (18D - Prop)
- Hawaii Dem caucuses - (33D - Prop)
- Washington Dem caucuses - (118D - Prop)

April

April 5:
- Wisconsin - (96D - Prop) (42R - Hybrid)
- Wyoming Dem - (18D - Prop)

April 19:
- New York - (291D - Prop) (95R - Prop w/ Trigger)

April 26:
- Connecticut - (70D - Prop) (28R - Hybrid)
- Delaware - (31D - Prop) (16R - Winner take All)
- Maryland - (118D - Prop) (38R - Hybrid)
- Pennsylvania - (210D - Prop) (71R - Hybrid)
- Rhode Island - (33D - Prop) (19R - Prop)

May

May 3:
- Indiana - (92D - Prop) (57R - Hybrid)

May 10:
- Nebraska GOP primary - (36R - Winner take All)
- West Virginia - (37D - Prop) (34R - Hybrid)

May 17:
- Kentucky Dem primary - (61D - Prop)
- Oregon - (73D - Prop) (28R - Prop)

May 24:
- Washington GOP - (44R - Prop)

June

June 7:
- California - (546D - Prop) (172R - Hybrid)
- Montana - (28D - Prop) (27R - Winner take All)
- New Jersey - (142D - Prop) (51R - Winner take All)
- New Mexico - (43D - Prop) (24R - Prop)
- South Dakota - (25D - Prop) (29R - Winner take All)
- North Dakota Dem - (23D - Prop)

June 14:
- Washington, DC Dems - (46D - Prop)

States that the RNC reports will not hold Presidential preference votes in 2016:

- North Dakota - (28R - Conv)
- Wyoming - (29R - Conv)

Sources: RNC website, Balletopedia, US Presidential Election News

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6. Presidential Primary Debates

Republicans

The Republican National Committee is currently planning to sanction at least twelve Presidential primary debates. Six have already been held, in Ohio, California, Colorado, Wisconsin, Nevada, and South Carolina.

Trump, in response to his dustup at the previous Fox News debate, with Fox news anchor, Megyn Kelly, had threatened not to participate because she was to be one of the moderators of that debate. This was made more complicated by a news release distributed by Fox News. Trump then said he would not participate.

The Republican National Committee has decided to replace NBC with CNN as the moderator for the debate scheduled for February 26th. This is in response to CNBC’s performance at the October 28, 2015 debate. The date will be changed to February 25th.

Current planned Republican primary debates:

1. Fox News, August 6, 2015, Ohio – Completed

2. CNN, September 16, 2015, California - Completed

3. CNBC, October 28, 2015, Colorado - Completed

4. Fox Business, November 10, 2015, Wisconsin - Completed

5. CNN, December 15, 2015, Las Vegas, Nevada - Completed

6. Fox Business, January 14, 2015, Charleston, South Carolina - Completed

7. Fox News, January 28, 2016, Des Moines, Iowa - Completed

8. ABC News, February 6, 2016, Manchester, New Hampshire

9. CBS News, February 13, 2016, Greenville, South Carolina

10. CNN, February 25, 2016, Houston, Texas

11. CNN, March 10, 2016, Miami, Florida

Three others are pending:

Fox News, March 2016, location TBD

Polling before and after Republican Debates

Democrats

There will be six Presidential primary debates. They will be held in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, and Wisconsin.

Current planned Democratic primary debates:

1. CNN, October 13, 2015, Nevada - Completed
2. CBS News, November 14, 2015, Des Moines, Iowa - Completed
3. ABC News, December 19, 2015, Manchester, New Hampshire
4. NBC News, January17, 2015, Charleston, South Carolina - Completed
5. PBS, February 11, 2016, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
6. Univison, March 9, 2016, Miami, Florida

Polling before and after Democratic Debates

The size of the television audience for each debate has steadily declined.

Republican - Fox News, August 6, 2015, Ohio – 24 million viewers
Republican - CNN, September 16, 2015, California - 23 million viewers
Democrat - CNN, October 13, 2015 – 15.8 million viewers
Republican – CNBC, October 28, 2015 – 14 million viewers
Republican – Fox Business News, November 10, 2015 – 13.5 million viewers
Democrat – CBS/WSJ, November 14, 2015 - 8.5 million viewers
Republican - CNN, December 15, 2015, Nevada – 18 million viewers
Democrat - ABC, December 19, 2015, New Hampshire – 6.7 million viewers
Republican – Fox Business, January 14, 2016 – S. – 11 million viewers
Democratic – NBC – January 17, 2016 – South Carolina – 10.2 million viewers

The Republican debates have drawn a total audience of 103.5 million viewers; an average of 17.25 million viewers. The Democratic debates have drawn 41.2 million viewers; an average of 10.3 million viewers.

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7. The Conventions

- Republicans: July 18-21, Cleveland, Ohio
- Democrats: July 25-28, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

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