Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

April 23, 2016 11:57 AM


Currently, 77% of Americans disapprove of the job being done by Congress, while 14% approve. [CBS4/1216]

Americans disapprove of the job being done by Democrats in Congress by 59% to 36%. They disapprove of the job being done by Republicans in Congress by 73% to 21%. [McClatchy-Marist 3/31/15]

The House

The 2016 election will be held approximately 6 months from now. There is an argument being made that the chaos in the contest for the Republican Presidential nomination has drawn additional attention to House races by many Republican donors and supporters.

Some argue that this raises the prospects for Democratic challengers. Any prospect of the Democrats’ taking back control of the House has not really improved since the last issue of the Watch. As it stands now, the Republicans can hold the House without a whole lot of effort. All they need to do is hold the ‘Safe’ Republican seats and 13 of the 24 seats that are ‘Likely/Lean’ Republican. (As usual, The Cook Political Report is the source of the data below.)

  • Democrats 188
  • Republicans 246
  • Vacancy 1

  Democrats Republicans
Safe in 2016 174 205
Likely 9 11
Lean 5 13
Toss-ups Democrats Republicans
  3 15

45% of Americans would prefer a Republican-controlled Congress. 47% of Americans would prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress. [NBC/WSJ 4/10-14]

The Senate

GOP Senators who may be vulnerable go back and forth as to the impact of a Trump candidacy on their re-election prospects. They would clearly like to run with someone other than Trump, but it is not clear that they would be that much more comfortable with Cruz at the top of the ticket.

Republicans Ron Johnson, Kelly Ayotte and Pat Toomey seem to be the most vulnerable at the moment.

The most vulnerable Democratic seat is Nevada, where Harry Reid is retiring.

As with the House, we won’t know the real impact of a particular Republican presidential candidate until after the Republican convention.

  • Republicans 54
  • Democrats 44
  • Independents 2

  Democrats Republicans
Seats not up in 2016 36 30
Safe in 2016 8 13
Leaning in 2016 2
Total 46 48
Toss-ups Democrats Republicans
  Nevada Johnson

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