The Contest for President

Hilary Clinton has become the first woman to be the presidential nominee of a major political party.

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This presidential campaign is about two visions of America. The first is one in which nothing works and everyone in power is incompetent and has done nothing right. The second concedes that there is much to be done but that this is a country with a system that has worked before and will work again.

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“Anybody who doesn’t think the race will be close is kidding themselves. With the two most intensely disliked presidential nominees in American history, neither can win big. Both candidates have a low ceiling because their negatives are so high, and a high floor because their rival’s negatives are so high as well. If they were stocks, analysts would say that they have narrow trading ranges. The race will likely hinge on a half-dozen or more states that may be determined by just a per-centage point or two. Any race that close can obviously go either way. I still think there are many more factors giving Clinton the edge, notably the electoral college, demographic trends, a superior campaign, and vastly more financial resources. Even so, the race is apt to go down to the wire.” [Charlie Cook, 7/18/16]

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During the course of the primary campaign, 61% of Republicans switched their support at least once. Of this group 36% switched their support once. 25% switched their support twice. 34% supported the same candidate throughout. 5% remained undecided.

1% of GOP voters named trump as their first choice in March 2015.
27% of GOP voters named trump as their first choice in August 2015.
34% of GOP voters named trump as their first choice in December 2015.
44% of GOP voters named Trump as their first choice in April 2016.
88% of GOP voters named Trump as their first choice in General election.

[Pew Research Center American Trends Panel surveys]

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43% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans are very/fairly satisfied with the presidential candidates. This is the lowest level of satisfaction by either party since 1996.[Pew Research Center 7/7]

46% of Americans prefer that a Democrat be elected president while 41% prefer that a Republican be elected. [NBC/WSJ 7/12]

50% say that Clinton is prepared for the job as president while 30% say that Trump is prepared for the job. [NYT/CBS 7/12]

41% of registered voters think that Hillary Clinton would be better at dealing with racial problems between police and African Americans. 57% of African Americans also believe that about Clinton.

19% of registered voters think that Donald Trump would be better at dealing with racial problems between police and African Americans. 5% of African Americans also believe that about Donald Trump. [NBC/WSJ 7/13]

An important part of the attraction of Donald Trump is that he gives voice to things that many people believe but hesitate to say out loud.

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Ohio has voted for the winning presidential candidate in 28 of the past 30 elections, dating back to 1896 (the exceptions were 1944 and 1960). That’s the best “winning percentage” of any state over that timeframe. Additionally, the state has deviated on average only about two points from the national two-party voting over the same period, making its voting more reflective of the national average than any other state. [The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President by Kyle Kondik]

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The Democratic candidate for President has won--at least in the last six presidential elections (1992-2012)--in 18 states and the District of Columbia for a total of 242 electoral votes. The Republican candidate for President has won --at least the last six presidential elections--in 13 states for a total of 102 electoral votes. [Cook Political Report]

The July 1st NBC battleground map shows the following:



Real Clear Politics 7/22 shows the following:



Sabato’s Crystal Ball 7/22 shows the following:

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Three of the Democratic candidates for vice-president of the United States since 1964 have some connection to Minnesota. Hubert Humphrey was born in South Dakota but moved to Minnesota and was elected from there to the U.S. Senate. Walter Mondale was born in Minnesota and elected from there to the U.S. Senate. Tim Kaine was born in St. Paul, Minnesota and elected to the Senate from Virginia. (Courtesy Jim Johnson)

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Senator Tim Kaine, Clinton’s choice as her running mate, is known as a person who does not let his personal beliefs interfere with his support of the rule of law. While he opposes the death penalty, many individuals were put to death while he was governor. While he is personally pro-life he has spoken of his respect for the right of a woman to make her own choices. He is a perfect fit for Clinton.

Governor Mike Pence, Trump’s choice as his running mate, is known for his ties to the Republican base, particularly social conservatives. He has an A rating from the National Rifle Association and a 100% rating from the American Conservative Union. His time in the U.S. House of Representatives and his popularity in the Republican caucus makes him a perfect emissary for Trump’s agenda if he is elected President

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Selected polls, July 2016

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The Money Game – How much was raised? (OpenSecrets)

Clinton Campaign Committee: $264,400,00 / Outside groups: $110,200,000

Sanders Campaign Committee: $227,700,000 / Outside groups: $869,400

Trump Campaign Committee*: $89,000,000 / Outside groups: $7,200,000

* 47,500,000 loans received

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