The Contest for President

As you look at the materials that follow, keep in mind something I often forget. It was advice from Peter Hart about how to look at this race…“Stay with the dynamics; it is not about the numbers today.”

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Those who believe that woman face more significant obstacles to get ahead than men, support Hillary Clinton by 70-29%. Those who believe that these obstacles are largely gone, support Donald Trump by 67-27%. [Pew Research, 8/16/16]

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41% have a net favorable view of Hillary Clinton. This is a slight decline from May 31, 2015 when Clinton had a 45% favorable rating. Those who have an unfavorable view of Clinton have grown from 49% on May 31, 2015 to 56% today.

Donald Trump has a current net favorable rating of 35%, up from 16% in May 2015. His unfavorable rating has also grown in that same time period from 49% to 56% [WP/ABC, 8/28/2016]

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In the August NBC/WSJ survey, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are compared to each other on a number of issues.

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Presidential Elections 1992-2012: Polling Data from around Labor Day before the Election

2016 Election: CNN/ORC 9/1-4



2012 Election: CBS 9/8-2012



2008 Election: CBS News, 9/5-9/7/2008



2004 Election: CBS News, 9/6-9/8/2004



2000 Election: CBS News, 9/9-9/11/2000



1996 Election: CBS News/NYT, 9/2-9/4/1996



1992 Election: CBS News/NYT, 9/9-9/13/1992

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The following are excerpts from a report by Peter Hart and Corrie Hunt based on a focus group conducted on August 25, 2016 in the Milwaukee suburbs for the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

“If you look at the latest surveys and listen to David Plouffe, who thinks the presidential race is “likely to be a landslide” you might think this race is settled. …My warning is to not be enamored with today’s numbers and to look much closer at the voices and thinking of voters….What’s interesting is that what we heard in suburban Milwaukee last week is not all that different from what we heard in Aurora, Colorado, in January 2015. Voters remain anxious and angry. These people told us they are not voting for someone they want to be president but against someone they do not want to be president.”

“When asked what scent or smell comes to mind when they think of the 2016 election, they offered a plethora of sickening scents. Four participants gave us ‘garbage’ and three said ‘skunk.’ The remaining voters gave us similarly offensive smells: ‘sulfur,’ ‘rotten eggs,’ ‘dead fish,’ and ‘manure.”

“They have strong views, but they are not high-information voters.”

“These swing voters’ opinions are based on the candidates’ personalities, the anger they feel toward Washington, and the fact that they are facing difficult challenges in their own lives.”

“Lack of trust is an important element.”

“The big picture is that Hillary Clinton is ahead among these voters because she is perceived as ‘the safer choice,’ but they just do not trust her….their lack of trust stems from a perception of her lack of openness and transparency. Several swing voters explained that when these issues arise, she comes across as defensive and dismissive…This is important because she will not get the benefit of anyone’s doubt if something takes a wrong turn.”

“Behind this election are the questions of who is going to improve the economy, take on the powerful elite, and change the culture of Washington.”

“Eight of these voters gave her a high rating on competence; only four say the same about Trump. Still, the 2016 presidential contest remains a ‘change’ election.”

“The Clinton campaign has been deft in rebutting Mr. Trump and spotlighting his shortcomings. But it has yet to make the case for Hillary Clinton as a candidate who will take on the establishment and be a transparent leader.”

“Donald Trump is unacceptable to most voters in the focus group and throughout the country.”

“He remains a ‘risk candidate.’ While they might not trust Hillary Clinton to be completely forthcoming or tell them the truth, they do not trust Donald Trump to have the self-control or demeanor required of a president.”

“In some ways, Trump is holding a better hand than Clinton. All he has to do is keep himself in check, heed his advisors’ input, and reform from making bombastic and offensive statements. For traditional politicians, this would be an easy hand to play. But as this campaign has demonstrated, Trump is anything but a traditional politician.”

“Voters imagining the candidates as zoo animals reveals the defining character traits they see in the candidates.”

“In this group, we asked swing voters to imagine each candidate as if they were an animal at the zoo. In these swing voters’ minds, Trump is foolish (and potentially dangerous) and strong (and potentially dangerous). Clinton, by contrast, brought to mind animals they viewed with suspicion, although some of her supporters envisioned an animal with strength that perseveres through tough times.”

“Hillary Clinton: Hippo, Gazelle, Giraffe, Tiger”

“Donald Trump: Baboon, Rhino, Lion, Hyena”

“The election reminds me very much of 1980.”

“In 1980, people knew that they did not want to vote for Jimmy Carter. Polls showed a close election, but those findings masked a pivotal belief among voters who only need to be reassured that Ronald Reagan would be a ‘safe’ choice. It was not until the single debate with President Carter that voters were convinced that Reagan could be a safe choice. This year, a lot of voters know they do not want Donald Trump as president but they need to know that they can ‘live with’ Hillary Clinton for the next four years. For now, the hurdle they face is to find reassurance that they can trust her and that she will identify with them and their day-to-day challenges.”

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NBC Battleground Map, 9/6 shows the following:



Real Clear Politics, 9/1 shows the following:



Sabato’s Crystal Ball, 9/1 shows the following:



Washington Post/Survey Monkey, 9/7 shows the following:

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Selected polls, August-September 2016

The list below includes a series of surveys in the presidential race. It includes both Clinton vs Trump and Clinton vs Trump vs the Libertarian and Green Party candidates. The numbers for the latter two are treated as one for the purposes of this chart.

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The Money Game – How much was raised?

The Clinton and Trump campaigns as of July 31, 2016



*As promised, Trump forgave the $47.5 million in loans he made to his campaign during the primaries. He has put a total of $50 million of his own money into the race. [Bloomberg Politics]

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