The Contest for President

50% of Clinton supporters say that men have too much influence in the country these days. This compares to 20% of Trump voters who share that point of view. (ABC News)

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The level of unfavorability of both candidates for president can’t help but draw attention.

Hillary Clinton is viewed unfavorably by 55% of Americans while 43% view her favorably. Trump is viewed unfavorably by 59% of Americans and 39% view him favorably.

In January 2009, Clinton was viewed favorably by 66% of Americans while only 33% viewed her unfavorably. Her favorability eventually diminished until the spring of 2015. In March her favorability number went from positive to negative several times. By mid-May it had turned negative for good.

Two things happened around that time. Clinton announced her candidacy for President and her use of a personal computer server for official business became known. 69% say Clinton did something wrong by using this server for her work as Secretary of State. [ CBS/NYT, 9/16]

The Real Clear Politics chart on the favorable/unfavorable ratings of Donald Trump start May 19-26, 2015. At that time, his unfavorable rating was 69% and his favorable rating was 20%. Between then and now, Trump’s unfavorable rating has ranged between 50% to 70%.

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60% of registered voters think Clinton is qualified to be president. Only 36% say that about Trump. When it comes to whether these two candidates are trustworthy, neither does very well. 35% say that Clinton is trustworthy and 31% have that view about Trump. [ABC/WP, 9/16]

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The belief by women that Hillary Clinton is “judged more harshly because she is a woman”, varies by age. 60% of women age 18-29, 46% of women age 30-34, 38% of women age 45-64 and 31% of women 65+ hold this belief. [NYT/CBS, 9/16]

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The NBC/WSJ survey (9/16-19) asked respondents to rate the two candidates as to who is better suited to handle certain matters. On six of these matters, Clinton comes out ahead. On two of these matters, Trump comes out ahead and one quality they are tied.

Dealing with the economy - Trump leads 46/41%
Being honest and trustworthy- Trump leads 41/31%
Terrorism and homeland security – Trump 43% , Clinton 42%
Dealing with immigration – Clinton leads 50/39%
Changing the country for the better – Clinton leads 44/38%
Being a good commander-in-chief – Clinton leads 48/33%
Being in charge of our nuclear weapons – Clinton leads 51/25%
Having the right temperament to be president – Clinton leads 56/23%
Being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency – Clinton leads 60/23%

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The following are excerpts from Chris Cillizza’s October 3, 2016 column in the Washington Post entitled, "Trump supporters have fallen heart over head in love"

“On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Friday, September 30th, Chris Matthews gave the best explanation of what’s behind Trump’s appeal that I have heard during the entire election cycle. Here’s the key segment:

“A lot of this support for Trump, with all his flaws, which he displays regularly, is about the country — patriotic feelings people have. They feel like the country has been let down. Our elite leaders on issues like immigration, they don’t regulate any immigration, it seems. They don’t regulate trade to our advantage, to the working man or working woman’s advantage. They take us into stupid wars. Their kids don’t fight, but our kids do.

“It’s patriotic. They believe in their country. . . . [There is a] deep sense that the country is being taken away and betrayed. I think that is so deep with people that they’re looking at a guy who’s flawed as hell like Trump and at least it’s a way of saying, ‘I am really angry about the way the elite has treated my country.’ And it’s so deep that it overwhelms all the bad stuff from Trump. It’s that strong. It’s a strong force wind.”

Chris continues, “So every time a newspaper advises against Trump, a celebrity says how dumb the candidate is or a member of the Republican foreign-policy establishment condemns him, it cements many people’s belief that what Trump has been saying all along is right. If the elites think that Trump is stupid or out of touch (or both), then those same elites think the same things about the average Joe. About you.

“The resentment and anger those feelings fuel is why, at some level, it does not matter what Trump says or does. It is beside the point for many of these people. The point is that he is channeling all of their distaste for the state of the country — and the elites they think created it.

“Those emotions are why Trump is still within shouting distance of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, despite his running one of the least-strategic campaigns in modern memory. And it is why he still has a shot at winning the election despite everything that he has done wrong over the past many months.

“Matthews understands that in a way that few other people--and especially pundits--do.”

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James Fallows posted the following on his daily blog on October 2nd. It hits the spot.

A Simple Way to Think About the Election

I think this is simple, rather than simplistic:

1. The people who are for Donald Trump, are for him. And almost nothing he can say or do, or that can be said or revealed about him, will undercut that support. The things that ordinarily would be considered “shocking” or “disqualifying” haven’t eroded belief among his base, and probably won’t.

2. But there are not enough of these people to get 270 electoral votes for Trump. There were enough to give him an initial plurality in a huge GOP field, and to keep him coming out ahead as his GOP rivals foolishly attacked one another rather than concentrating on him. But in the general election his core support has remained below winning levels in virtually all honest polls. He has so far seemed to hit a ceiling at around 40% support—sobering in itself, but not enough.

3. Therefore he needs new supporters—more women, more blacks and Latinos and Asians, more Muslims, more educated people, more of the young.

4. Therefore, the test of everything Trump does now—the debates, the “Miss Piggy” controversy, the taxes, everything—is whether it brings him anyone new. The question is not the one we mainly hear after debates or Trump flaps: how this affects his supporters. They already support him. The question is whether what he does and says brings in anyone undecided, or new.

My guess is that it has not.

The main point is: since Trump starts with not enough votes to win, the logical test to apply, in the 36 days that remain, is whether what he does with each speech, each answer in a debate, each tweet, each flux of the news cycle, expands his base. If it doesn’t, he has lost.

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Selected polls, September - October 2016

The list below includes a series of surveys in the presidential race. It includes both Clinton vs Trump and Clinton vs Trump vs the Libertarian and Green Party candidates. The numbers for the latter two are treated as one for the purposes of this chart.

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The Money Game – How much was raised?

The only numbers available are through August 31 so they seem a bit irrelevant at this time.

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