State of the Nation

The data below is the latest available as of November 27th.

Any statements in this issue of the Watch which are not sourced are mine.

---

The Setting

21% of Americans say the country is headed in the right direction while 63% say it is on the wrong track. (Reuters/Ipsos, 11/15)

The NBC/WSJ survey has been asking this question for a very long time. The highest “right track” number was recorded in September 2001 when it was 72% and the “wrong track” number was 11%.

Of the 75 surveys since October 20, 2008, when the “wrong track” number was 78% and the “right track” number was 12%, there has not been a single NBC/WSJ survey in which the “right track” number exceeded the “wrong track” number. The closest it came to a positive number came in April 2009, when the “right track” and “wrong track” numbers were the same at 43%.

The “wrong track” number was in the 40-49% range from February – September 2009. Since then the “wrong track” numbers have been in the 50-59% range or higher. There were four time periods when the “wrong track” number was in the 70% range: August – November 2011, October 2013, August 2014, December 2015 and April – July 2016.

---

The official BLS seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October 2016 is 4.9%. Seven years ago the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 10%.

If one takes into account the total number of unemployed + those marginally attached to the labor force + those working part-time who want full-time work, the current rate is 9.5%. Seven years ago the rate was 17.1%. [BLS data is based on those 16 years of age and older.]

In the third week of November, Gallup found an unadjusted unemployment rate of 5.1%. It also found an under-employment rate of 12.6% (unemployed + those working part-time but wanting full-time work). This is based on those 18 years of age and older.

---

The public’s grading of President Obama’s job approval, as found by Gallup on 11/22/16 is 55% approval/ 42% disapproval. Seven years ago it was 54% approval/40% disapproval. A year ago it was 44% approval /51% disapproval. Six months ago it was 53% approval /44% disapproval. [Gallup]

The following are President Obama’s approval/disapproval scores going back almost 4 years.





Obama has an approval/disapproval rating on the economy of 47% to 48% and an approval/disapproval rating on foreign policy of 43% to 50%. [Economist/ YouGov, 11/7]

---

In the NBC/WSJ survey taken just prior to the election (11/3-5) likely voters were asked whether, if the constitution permitted a president to run for a third term in office, they would consider voting for Obama. The likely voters split, 49% saying yes and 50% saying no. When the same question was asked of registered voters in September of Bill Clinton’s 8th year in office 64% said they would not consider voting for him for a third term and 34% said they would consider voting for him.

---

The Population

U.S. Population – 320,000,000+ people
Voting age population – 251,107,404
Voting Eligible population – 231,556,622
Registered to vote – 200,081,377
Ballots counted –135,557,845

78.5% of the U.S. population is of voting age
92.2% of the voting age population is eligible to vote
86.4% of the voting eligible population is registered to vote
67.75% of those registered to vote cast ballots
58.5% of the voting eligible population cast ballots

[United States Election Project, TargetSmart]

Return to Home Page