Mike Berman’s Washington Watch

December 2, 2016 11:54 AM

The Exit Polls

There have been some changes in the composition of the electorate between 1996 and 2016. There have also been changes since the 2008 election.

  • The number of whites has dropped from 83% to 70%
  • The number of non-whites has grown from 17% to 30%
    • African-Americans from 10% to 12%
    • Latinos from 5% to 11%
    • Asians from 1% to 4%


  • The number of those 18-29 years of age has remained constant at 17-19%
  • The number of those 30-44 years of age has dropped from 33% to 25%
  • The number of those 45-64 years of age has grown from 34% to 40%


  • Those with incomes under $50,000 dropped from 61% to 36% (From 2008 – 2016 varied from 38-36%)
  • Those with incomes over $50,000 grew from 39% to 64% (From 2008 – 2016 varied from 62-64%)
  • Those with incomes over $100,000 grew from 9% to 33% (From 2008-2016 varied from 26-33%)


  • Democrats from 39-37%
  • Republicans from 35-33%
  • Independents from 26-31%


  • Union member households dropped from 23-18%


  • From 2008-2016
    • Unmarried men increased from 14-19%
    • Unmarried women were relatively constant at 21-23%
    • Those who think the country is on the right track (From 53% in 1996 to 20% in 2008 and 33% in 2016)
    • Those who think the country is on the wrong track (From 43% in 1996 to 75% in 2008 to 62% in 2016)
    • The top issue: The economy – from 21% in 1996 to 63% in 2008 to 52% in 2016; Moral values – 22% in 2004


Demographic 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016
Women 52 52 54 53 53 52
Men 48 48 46 47 47 48
White 83 81 77 74 72 70
Non-White 17 20 23 27 28 30
African-American 10 10 11 13 13 12
Latino 5 7 8 9 10 11
Asian 1 2 2 2 3 4
Other 1 1 2 3 2 3
18-29 17 17 17 18 19 19
30-44 33 33 29 29 27* 25
45-64 34 36 38 37 38* 40
Over 65 16 14 16 16 16 15
Income Under $50K 61 47 45 38 41 36
Income Over $50K 39 53 55 62 59 64
Income Over $100K 9 15 18 26 28 33
Democrat 39 39 37 39 38 37
Republican 35 35 37 32 32 33
Independent 26 27 26 29 29 31
Liberal 20 20 21 22 25 26
Conservative 33 29 34 44 35 35
Moderate 47 50 45 34 41 39
High School Graduate 24 21 22 20 21 18
Some College 27 32 32 31 29 32
College Graduate 43 42 42 44 47 50
Catholic 29 26 27 27 25 23
Protestant 54 54 54 54 53 52
Jewish 3 4 3 2 2 3
Other Religion 6 6 7 6 7 7
No Religion 7 9 10 12 12 15
Full Time Workers 64 67 60 65 60 60
Union Member in Household 23 26 24 21 18 18
Married 66 65 63 66 60 58
Unmarried 34 35 37 34 40 42
Married Men + + + 33 29 29
Married Women + + + 32 31 30
Unmarried Men + + + 14 18 19
Unmarried Women + + + 21 23 23
LGBT 5 4 4 4 5 5
Right Direction 53 65 49 20 46 33
Wrong Track 43 31 46 75 52 62
Top Issue Economy-21% Economy-18% Moral Values-22% Economy-63% Economy-59% Economy- 52%


The following are selected results from the exit poll

  2016
Dem / Rep		 2012
Dem / Rep		 2008
Dem / Rep
Males 41/52 45/52 49/48
Females 54/41 57/44 56/43
White 37/57 39/59 43/55
African American 89/8 93/- 95/4
Latino 66/28 71/27 67/31
18-29 Years 55/34 60/35 66/32
30-44 Years 57/42 xx 52/46
45-64 Years 44/52 xx 50/47
65+ Years 44/52 44/56 45/53
Income Less than $50,000 53/41 60/38 60/38
$50-100,000 income 46/49 46/52 49/49
$100,000 or more 47/47 44/54 49/49


A Portrait of the Parties

The following is the share of each candidate’s supporters who belong to various groups and the changes between the 2012 and 2016 elections.

  Democrat Change Republican Change
Men 41% -1 53% +2
Women 59 +1 47 -2
High School/less 17 -8 20 -4
Some College 28 no change 35 +6
College Grads 32 +5 30 -1
Advance Degree 22 +3 14 -2
Income $50,000 or less 39 -9 32 -1
$50,000-100,000 29 +1 33 -2
$100,000 or more 42 +3 35 +1
Cities >50,000 42 +3 25 +1




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