The Money in the 2012 Presidential Election

(Through June 31, 2012)

In the 2007-08 cycle (through 11/24/08), the Obama campaign raised $778 million and spent $760 million. Through July 31st, the campaign had raised $348 million. To reach the amount spent in 2008, the campaign needs to raise $412 million between August 1st and October 31st. This amounts to roughly $137 million per month. Given that in July the Obama campaign committee raised only $49 million, it is clear that the campaign will not come near matching its 2008 total.

The following compares the two Presidential campaigns and each of their national party committees through July 31st of this 2011-12 election cycle. Effectively, Obama has controlled the DNC through this period, and Romney has taken control of his national party mechanism since he became the putative nominee. It also compares the two Super PACs specifically organized to support each of the two candidates. (Other Super PACs, as well as non-disclosing 501(c )(4)s, are playing in this space as well.)



Also in play for the Presidential candidates are the two Super PACs which were organized to support them in particular.



The following represents the financial activity of the Democratic and Republican House and Senate campaign committees.



DNC – Democratic National committee
RNC – Republican National Committee
DCCC – Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
NRCC – National Republican Congressional Committee
DSCC – Democratic Senate Campaign Committee
NRSC – National Republican Senatorial Committee

---

Suburban women – a key voting block

On August 13, 2012 Peter Hart conducted another in his series of focus groups under the auspices of the Annenberg Public Policy Center.

The following is WW’s summary of that focus group. The summary is composed of quotations from a memorandum that Peter prepared. (I did watch the focus group online.) The group was composed of a dozen suburban women in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

“Eight of the 12 women still prefer to call themselves “undecided,” though two “lean” toward Romney, and two “lean” toward Obama.”

“Scott Walker, the controversial Governor, is providing the strong leadership and hard choices that these women feel President Obama is failing to make. These voters – Democrats, Independents and Republicans – may not agree with Walker’s actions but they applaud his leadership.”

“...In meteorological terms, they see current economic conditions as “foggy,” “overcast,” “thunderclouds,” and “stormy” – no patches of blue or clearing forecasts for these women. Indeed, eight of the 12 tell a story about how the “economic recession” has changed their own life or that of an immediate family member. The pain from the economic recession remains very raw and real. When 10 of 12 people say the recession has had a direct effect on them or their immediate family, one gets a sense of how deeply it cuts – ‘loss of jobs,’ ‘reduction of work,’ ‘foreclosure,’ and ‘closing of a family business’ gives one a sense that voters are looking for answers and a roadmap, not shibboleths.”

“The one area of agreement among most of these voters is the quality of the campaign that is being run. While they seem resigned to it, they are turned off. The campaign is ‘cut throat,’ ‘backstabbing,’ ‘dirty and annoying,’ and as one woman stated, ‘I don’t trust anything,’ and another chimed in, ‘Everything is negative. I don’t know positives about either candidate.’ ”

“Bill Clinton has returned to center stage, and in some respect to these women he has become the symbol of what America needs. He is to 2012 what Ronald Reagan was to 2000: the shortcomings have washed away and all the good things grafted onto him.”

“The gap between how these voters related to and felt about Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is huge. Whatever reservations voters have about Obama as a leader, they like him as a person. For Mitt Romney, whatever credit he receives as a business leader, they have nothing but reservations about him as a person.”

Peter asked the group what each of the men would be like as a next door neighbor. The women described Obama as “nice, friendly,” “fun,” “neighborly,” “down-to-earth; playing with his kids,” “would have a vegetable garden.” They described Romney as “snobbish,” “wouldn’t talk to us,” “would make you feel uncomfortable,” “has an elevator for his cars.”

The memorandum describing the focus group has an extended discussion of the views of one of the participants, Michelle W. She is 38 years old, an electrical assembler, and mother of three pre-teen boys. She was laid off in 2009, and had a hard time finding a job. She was laid off for about three years.

“Michelle views the 2012 election through the lens of her background. She was a Democrat most of her life and she was into Obama in 2008. But 2012 is different. She states that she is undecided, but in listening to her views, it is clear that she is undecided not on Obama, but on Romney. Her skepticism and disappointment in Obama makes it difficult to convince her that he deserves four more years in office.”

“Yet , while there is a clear disappointment in how the President has performed, there is an appreciation of Barack Obama, the man. As a next door neighbor ‘he would take my boys in, ....It takes good neighbors to deal with them, and I think he would be fine with them.’.... She would want to be with Obama for commuting to get into the HOV lane, because he ‘seems friendlier.’ ”

“To Michelle W., Romney is just the opposite, ‘I’m unsure, I don’t know that much about him.’....’It just seems like he’s secretive and a weasel; I’ve always viewed a president as a leader, and that’s not what I view as a leader...I don’t want someone like that being a leader.’ ”

“So Michelle W.’s struggle is what many voters seem to be going through: they are looking at the President as someone who they are not certain is ready to provide strong leadership, and at a challenger that they cannot relate to and even fully trust.”

---

A bit more about Paul Ryan

Paul Ryan is the most conservative member of Congress to run for Vice President, at least since 1900. The most liberal member to run for the office was John Nance Garner in 1932 and 1936. In more modern times Walter Mondale, who was a candidate for VP, in 1976 and 1980 is the most liberal. [Fivethirtyeight.blog. NYT]

Ryan is getting better known. In the June 2011 NBC/WSJ survey, 46% of Americans said they did not know the name. Last week in that survey only 17% of Americans said they did not know him. But to know him is not necessarily to love him. In the August survey, 33% rated him positively, while 32% rated him negatively.

Only 4% do not know Vice President Biden’s name, and he is rated negatively by 40% and positively 36%. 41% find Ryan to be out of step with the mainstream of American thinking, but 49% think that Biden is “out of step.” About equal numbers Biden (40%) and Ryan (38%) think they are in the mainstream of American thinking.

During the last several presidential elections, right after a non-incumbent candidate for President has announced his choice for Vice President, the NBC/WSJ survey has asked respondents whether the selection made them more or less likely to vote for the Presidential candidate.

On this standard, Ryan has had less impact than any VP nominee since Dick Cheney.

---

The current state of play

The NBC/WSJ Journal conducted its most recent nationwide survey on August 16-20. Here are a number of its findings which relate most directly to the general election and the presidential election in particular. Also shown are findings on Medicare, which are included in the new NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac poll of three battleground states August 15-21. [Unless otherwise noted, all data from NBC/WSJ]

* On a scale of 10, with 10 being very interested, 68% score 9 or 10. At this time in 2008, 73% scored 9 or 10.



* Preferred outcome of Congressional elections:

• Republican controlled 42%
• Democrat controlled 47%

* In the election for the U.S. Congress:



* For whom would you vote for President:

• Romney/Ryan 44%
• Obama/Biden 48%

• 72% of Romney voters will definitely vote for him
• 76% of Obama voters will definitely vote for him

* Has what you have seen or heard about in the last couple of weeks made you feel more or less favorably toward:



* Medicare

Does Medicare need:

• Complete overhaul 15%
• Major changes 27%
• Minor modifications 39%
• Okay the way it is 15%

The answers to on this question in April and June of 2011. [NBC/WSJ]

How important is Medicare, which pays for health care for seniors? [NYT/CBS]



Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on medicare – Obama or Romney [NYT/CBS]



* Which candidate, if either, do you think is running a negative campaign:

• Romney 11%
• Obama 20%

At this time in 2008, 29% thought McCain was running a negative campaign, and 5% thought Obama was running a negative campaign.

* As between Obama and Romney, who would be better at each of the following qualities:



* By 42% to 31% people think the country is worse off than it was when Obama became President.

* Have you been contacted on behalf of one of the candidates for President by any of the following means:

---

One astute political observer framed the election with this question: “Is the Republican Party really ready to take over the country?”

---

Americans and abortion rights

First, Missouri Republican Senate Candidate Todd Akin made his unfortunate remarks about “legitimate rape.” Then the Republican National Convention’s platform committee adopted a platform plank, to be presented to the convention, that is broadly anti-abortion and says nothing about any exceptions.

Now the issue of abortion is very much on the country’s political plate as it heads toward the general election.

Here is some data from Gallup surveys on this question going back at least to 1995.

* 50% describe themselves as “pro-life” as compared to 33% who held that view in 1996 and 41% who expressed that view in 2006.

• 72% of Republicans
• 47% of Independents
• 34% of Democrats

* 41% say they are “pro-choice” compared to 56% in 1996 and 51% as recently as 2006.

• 22% of Republicans
• 41% of Independents
• 58% of Democrats (68% of Democrats expressed this position in 2011)

* Views about whether abortions should be legal under any circumstance are roughly the same today as they were 35 years ago.



* Views have also been pretty consistent on whether abortion should be considered:



Note: In a recent study of print coverage of election issues from November 2011 to May 2012, 81% of the quotes in stories about abortion came from men.