The 2008 Presidential Campaign

The Field: And Then There Were ...

19 Republicans, 17 Democrats, and 1 Green Party candidate have made some kind of noise or another about running for President in 2008.  In addition, there is at least one potential Independent candidate, Michael Bloomberg, who, while he has not suggested he might run, his folks have made noises in that direction.

Among the Republicans (19)

• 10 filed campaign committee (1 has since quit the race)
• 4 got out of the game before starting
• 1 suggested she will start campaign in September
• 3 have said "wait and see"
• 1 has said nothing

Among the Democrats (17)

• 9 filed campaign committees (1 has since quit the race)
• 5 got out of the game before starting
• 3 have said "wait and see"

The potential Green Party candidate has said "wait and see."  The most talked about possible Independent candidate is simply keeping open his option.  So far he has made no Shermanesque statements.

For a complete list see Addendum 1.

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Days to Go

• Ames Iowa Republican Straw Poll - 17
• Iowa Caucuses - 172
• New Hampshire Primary - 180
• February 5, 2008 - 194
• General Election Day - 468
• Inauguration Day 2009 - 545

[NBC-First Read]

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Qualities we want in our Candidates

In the June NBC/WSJ survey, Republicans, or respondents who said they would vote in the Republican primary (as Republicans), and Democrats, or respondents who said they would vote in the Democratic primary (as Democrats), were asked which 1 or 2 of a list of qualities they want in the nominees for President.

The two groups had different priorities.  Republicans put at the top of their list "Being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the Presidency."  Democrats selected as their #1 "Bringing real change to the direction of the country."

The following are the priorities selected by the two groups. How do the scores for Americans generally match your own judgements?

Qualities which Americans want in the nominees for President (1)

Democrats and Republicans have different priorities for the qualities they want in the next nominee
for President.


(1) Respondents were asked to rate these priorities on a scale 5 to 1.

5 = very good
1 = very poor
Numbers for candidates = combination of 5 + 4
(2) Roughly 25% were not able to rate Romney

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86% of Americans are at least somewhat comfortable with the idea of an African-American President.  79% have the same view about a woman in that role, 74% would be comfortable with an Hispanic, 63% with a Mormon, and 81% with a person who is Jewish.  [WP/ABC 7/07]

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The Primaries

Not much has changed in the Democratic field.  Clinton, Obama and Edwards still lead the pack. 83% of Democrats, including leaners, are satisfied with the field.

But there has been substantial change in the Republican field.  McCain has faded, and Fred Thompson, who has yet to declare his candidacy, is running 2nd in some surveys.  65%, including leaners, are satisfied with the field.

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The Democratic Primaries

Just to add a little perspective or a topic for chatter around the water cooler...

Do you recall who was leading in the Democratic primary in 1999 about this time?  Do you recall who was leading in the Democratic primary at this time in 2003?

WW asked at least 30 savvy, political junkies one or both of these questions over a several week period.  (Pollsters were not included in the respondent group.)

One person answered the 1999 question correctly.  2 people answered the 2003 question correctly, one of whom worked for the person who was leading in the polls at that time.

Gallop National Surveys

	Aug 91	Oct 91	Early Jan 92	Late Jan 92	Mid Feb 92
Clinton	11	6	17	42	41
Tsongas	7	4	6	9	31
Kerrey	X	8	11	10	6
Harkin	6	7	9	9	5
Brown	18	15	21	16	7
Wilder	8	9	9	X	X
Cuomo	30	33	X	X	X

Harkin won Iowa and Clinton finished second to Tsongas in New Hampshire
(Iowa caucuses were February 10, 1992, and the New Hampshire primary was February 18, 1992.)

	June 03	Sept 03	Dec 03	Jan 04	Mid Feb 04
Lieberman	21	13	10	10	X
Kerry	16	12	7	11	65
Daschle	16	X	X	X	X
Edwards	7	5	7	9	19
Gephardt	14	16	14	9	X
Dean	5	14	25	24	8
Sharpton	3	2	3	2	X
Clark	7	10	17	20	X
Graham	4	4	X	X	X
Mosely Braun	3	5	5	3	X

Kerry won Iowa and New Hampshire
(Iowa caucuses were January 19, 2004, and the New Hampshire primary was January 27, 2004.)

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Hillary Clinton continues to lead the Democratic primary field on a national basis.

In a WP/ABC survey concluded on 7/21, Clinton leads the field with 45% to Obama's 30% and Edwards' 12%.

In a 6-survey average of polls taken from July 9-18: Clinton 36.5, Obama 24.3, Gore 13.3, and Edwards 11.5.  (Numerous surveys continue to include Gore, even though he has made no move to enter the race.)

In a July 6-8 survey, Gallup showed results with Gore in and Gore out.  Clinton leads by 16 points in either scenario.



In 10 Gallup surveys since February 9th, Clinton's average lead over Obama is 15.4 points, including one wacky survey in which she was only ahead by 1 point.

The Clinton story is also pretty good on a State-by-State basis, but not quite so strong as her national position.

The following are averages of 2 or more polls taken during the referenced periods.  Clinton has the lead in 7 of the 8 States listed.  It will be interesting to see whether the 4th of July swing by Hillary and the former President made a difference.

State	Dates	Clinton	Obama	Edwards	Richardson
Iowa	6/13-30	24.7	17.3	25.3	7.3
NH	6/27-7/17	33	23.5	9.8	8.3
SC	6/13-7/18	33.7	26.7	16.3	--
Nev	6/15-22	39.5	16.5	14.0	6.5
Fla	6/6-7/15	40	24	12.8	--
Calif	6/18-7/1	43	19.5	14.5	--
NJ	6/26-7/15	41.5	17.5	8.0	--
Mich	5/4-7/8	35	25	15.0	--

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The Republican Primaries

The Republican field has experienced some pretty dramatic changes in recent months.

John McCain's campaign has faltered badly and so has his standing among Republican voters.  In December he had the support of 28% of Republicans in the Gallup survey, tied with Giuliani for the lead. Now he is at 16%.

Fred Thompson, who has yet to officially announce (not until September), is now clearly in 2nd place.  Given how well he is doing without being an active candidate, some might argue he should stay out as long as possible.

Giuliani continues to lead the Republican field with 37%, followed by McCain (16%), Fred Thompson (15%), and Romney (8%).

In a 6-survey average of polls taken from July 9-18: Giuliani 25, Thompson 20, McCain 13.5, and Romney 10.  As with Gore on the Democratic lists, some surveys include Newt Gingrich, even though he has said he will not make a decision until the Fall.

It is unlikely that Gingrich will become a candidate, especially since he has the highest unfavorable rating among Republicans of any of the top candidates, at 32%.

Giuliani's position in the various State races is not as strong as Clinton's.

The following are averages of 2 or more polls taken during the referenced periods.  Giuliani has the lead in 4 of the 8 States listed, and is tied in the 5th.  Romney leads in the other 3 States.

State	Dates	Giuliani	Thompson	McCain	Romney
Iowa	6/13-30	15.7	16.0	9.7	24.3
NH	6/27-7/17	18.8	12.8	16.5	28.5
SC	6/13-7/18	23.7	20.3	16.7	7.7
Nev	6/15-22	19.0	21.0	10.5	22.0
Fla	6/6-7/15	30.5	23.3	10.8	10.8
Calif	6/18-7/1	28.5	17.5	16.5	7.0
NJ	6/26-7/15	47.0	12.0	10.5	6.0
Mich	5/4-7/8	19.5	11.0	18.0	19.5

 
Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents who support Giuliani tend to be somewhat less conservative than the average Republican voters, especially on social issues.  But even at that, they are pretty conservative.  Yet 74% of this group say that Giuliani is an acceptable nominee for the Republican party.  He stands above Thompson (59%), McCain (57%), Romney (53%).  [Gallup July 2007]

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In 2 mid-July surveys Fred Thompson's favorables are stronger than his unfavorable, but more than half the folks interviewed had not heard of him or, if they had heard of him, don't know enough to have an opinion.

In the CBS/NYT survey of July 9-17, 17% view him favorably and 11% unfavorably.  52% had not heard of him and another 20% were undecided.

Gallup's July 12-15 survey found him to have favorables of 28%; unfavorables of 18%; 37% who had never heard of him; and 17% who had heard of him, but were not sure about rating him.

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The Money Primary

Barack Obama is the clear winner of the 2nd "election" of the money primary, which ended on June 30th.  Obama raised more money in total, more money for the primary, had more net cash on hand, and had far more contributors than anyone else in either Party.  The one area in which he failed to lead was in spending; he came in 2nd.

Obama raised $32,907,000, of which $31,200,000 can be used in the primaries.  He had $32,700,000 net cash available and has a total of 258,000 contributors.  He spent $16,700,000.

Clinton finished 2nd, having raised $27,000,000, of which $21,364,000 can be used in the primaries. She had $29,600,000 net cash available and spent $13,671,000 in the quarter.  The total number of her contributors was not readily available.

Giuliani was 3rd in this race, having raised $17,470,000, of which $13,760,000 can be spent on the primaries.  He had $14,600,000 net cash available and spent $10,900,000 in the 2nd quarter.

Romney brought in $14,000,000, all of which can be used in the primaries, to finish 4th.  In addition, he lent his campaign an additional $6,500,000.  This results in his having $12,000,000 in net cash available.  He was the clear spending leader, having shelled out $18,200,000 this quarter.

The 1st half year and the 2nd quarter in general has proved to be a disaster for McCain.  He raised $11,470,000, of which $9,965,000 can be spent on the primaries.  However, he spent $12,200,000, and finished the quarter with net cash available of $166,000 (this is not an error).

John Edwards is running behind in the fundraising chase, but he is also spending money more carefully than most of the others. He took in $9,030,000, of which $7,730,000 can be used in the primaries. He spent about $6,400,000, leaving himself with net cash available of a very respectable $12,000,000.

Of the remaining Democratic candidates, Dodd had about $5,000,000 net cash available, Richards $7,000,000, and Biden $1,900,000.  Biden will likely have the most difficulty raising additional money, and it is likely that his campaign will literally run out of gas by Thanksgiving.  Dodd and Richardson will have sufficient funds to arrive at the caucus/primary season still standing.

Kucinich had just over $200,000 net cash available at the end of the quarter.  He can't go on for too long with that "war chest," but he will be able to afford to attend the debates as long as he is included.

Full details of fundraising to date can be found at Addendum 2.  Candidates who have raised less than $1,000,000 since the outset of the campaign are not included in the chart.

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The Maxed-Out Givers Derby

More than half of the total Presidential campaign primary funds raised by the 3 leading candidates in each Party comes from so-called "maxed-out givers."  These are contributors who have contributed the legal maximum to the campaign - $2,300.  (Fred Thompson is not included because he has yet to file a committee with the Federal Election Commission.)

Here are the percentages, as calculated by the Washington Post from Federal Election Commission records.

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Fred Thompson has been raising money and putting together a staff, but he does not intend to announce his candidacy or apparently to file a committee with the Federal Election Commission until September.  Even before his announcement there has been a shakeup at the top of his campaign.

While there is some disagreement among campaign finance lawyers as to whether it is necessary, Thompson's "testing the waters committee" plans to file with the IRS on July 31st.  This will cover income and expenses through June 30th.  Since the bulk of his fundraising has come after July 1st, this report will not tell us much.

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The General Election

15 months to the general election, and while the general preference seems to favor whomever might be the Democratic candidate - 47% to 32% - the numbers in head-to-head races do not reflect it. [CBS/NYT 7/07]


 

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A Gallup survey, 7/12-15/07, shows an equally tight race with the exception that the Obama/Thompson race stands out without Obama having an 11 point lead over Thompson.

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The Marriage Gap

In the last 3 Presidential elections, married voters have given greater support to the Republican candidate, and unmarried voters have given greater support to the Democratic candidate.

In recent polls married voters have generally rated Republican candidates more favorably than unmarried voters. However, at least two of the leading Democratic candidates, Obama and Edwards, do better with married voters than has been typical for Democratic candidates.

The following are the favorable ratings of leading Democratic and Republican candidates.


Among the subgroups of married men, married women, unmarried men, and unmarried women - married men are the most consistently positive about the Republican candidates, and unmarried women are the most positive about the Democrats.  [Gallup April-June, 2007]

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17-29 year olds - How they look at the 2008 Presidential race

Here is how that group, all of whom will be eligible to vote in the 2008 Presidential election, see the race and the candidates.

• 58% are paying some or a lot of attention to the race (compares to 66% among all adults)


• 77% say that people of their generation will have a lot of influence in deciding the winner


• If the election were held at the time of the survey, 54% would probably vote for the Democratic candidate, 32% for the Republican.  (Among all adults it is 49% to 33%)

They were asked if there is any candidate running about whom they feel enthusiastic

• Obama: 18%
• Clinton: 17%
• Giuliani:  4%
• Romney & Fred Thompson: 2% each
• Brownback, Edwards, McCain, Paul: 1% each

They were asked whether their opinion was favorable or unfavorable about a number of candidates

• 77% believe the best age for a President is 40s/50s (All adults: 61% - 50s/60s)


• 59% do not think people will vote for a Mormon for President


• 66% say voters would support a candidate who is black


• 59% say voters would support a candidate who is a woman


• Of the 77% who say they plan to be registered for the 2008 election, 45% plan to participate in the Democratic primary, while 25% plan to engage in the Republican primary

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A Bloomberg Candidacy?

Will he or won't he?  That seems to be the multi-billion dollar question.  Will Mike Bloomberg, successful businessman, philanthropist, and currently serving as 2nd term Mayor of New York City, decide to run for President as an Independent?

On one of his recent shows, George Stephanopoulos reported on a conversation with an aide to the New York Mayor.  The aide said there is a 4-part test that Bloomberg will use next February, to decide whether to enter the race, after it is clear who the Democrats and Republicans will pick as their nominees.

1. 70% of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction


2. Both candidates have unfavorable ratings in the 40s


3. 60% of the country is open to a 3rd party


4. 20-25% Americans are open to Mike Bloomberg

Recently, Bloomberg, who had been a registered Democrat and became a registered Republican in order to run as a Republican for Mayor, changed his registration once again, and is now an Independent. There is some suggestion that the move was made because it is difficult to get on some State ballots as an Independent if you are registered as a member of a Party in another State.

Certainly, the Bloomberg "team" has done the research necessary to know what it takes to get on the ballot as an Independent.

There are several things that will work for Bloomberg if he decides to enter the race.

He can self-fund without giving it a second thought.  He has twice won election to the top office in an essentially Democratic-controlled city.  He has proved in New York that he will move ahead with solutions to problems whether or not those solutions are politically popular at the outset.  He brings top notch, if somewhat unconventional, folks into government.  If he loses, he already knows what he wants to do next.

And finally, the positive rating of the Democratic Party is 32%, down from its most recent high of 50% in January 2000.  And the positive rating of the Republican Party is at 28%, down from its recent December 2001 high of 57%.

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A Pew Research Center study found that 65% of Americans had heard of Bloomberg, more at that time than could identify Romney, Biden, Fred Thompson, Richardson, Dodd, or a number of others.  On the other hand, 99% could identify Clinton, 90% Giuliani, 89% McCain, 87% Edwards, and 85% Obama.

Of registered voters who had heard of each candidate only 9% said there was a good chance they would vote for Bloomberg (31% said there was a good or at least some chance they would vote for him).

28% good chance they would vote for Clinton
(53% good/some chance)

27% good chance they would vote for Obama
(60% good/some chance)

22% good chance they would vote for Giuliani
(55% good/some chance)

21% good chance they would vote for Fred Thompson
(47% good/some chance)

16% good chance they would vote for McCain
(53% good/some chance)

16% good chance they would vote for Edwards
(51% good/some chance)

14% good chance would vote for Romney
(40% good/some chance)

52% of Independents and Republicans and 63% of Democrats said there was no chance they would vote for Bloomberg.  [6/1/07]

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In another survey taken by the Washington Post/the Kaiser Foundation and Harvard (during the full month of May), 77% of Independents said they would seriously consider an Independent Presidential candidate, and a majority of that group said they would consider voting for Bloomberg.

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In a 3-way race, the July 8th USAToday/Gallup survey showed Clinton leading with 43%, followed by Giuliani at 38%, and Bloomberg at 12%.

Two national, general election surveys were taken between 6/20-24/07 by CNN and Newsweek. Averaging those two surveys in a head-to-head race, Clinton leads Giuliani by 50%-46%.  In a 3-way contest that includes Bloomberg, the result is Clinton 43.5%, Giuliani 37.5%, Bloomberg 14%.

In a Quinnipiac University poll taken in early July, Giuliani leads Clinton in a head-to-head contest 47%-44%.  However, if Bloomberg enters the race, he takes 18% in a 3-way race, and Giuliani and Clinton are tied at 36%.

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One added incentive is the fact that a majority of Americans (58%) think that the two main political Parties do such a poor job that a third major Party is needed.  [USAToday/Gallup 7/07]

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To take a look at the landscape for an Independent candidate WW did the following:

• created, State by State, an average % for the Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates in 2000 and 2004


• placed the 50 States and D.C. into 4 groupings


• States won by either party by:


• 20 points or more - 135 electoral votes (includes New York's 31 electoral votes)


• 15-19 points - 51 electoral votes


• 10-14 points - 139 electoral votes


• 0-9 points - 213 electoral votes

Keep in mind that to win a State does not require a majority of the votes or even a near majority. Acquiring the electoral votes for a given state (other than Maine and Nebraska) only requires that a candidate get 1 more vote than any other candidate.  A candidate getting 34% of the vote, wins if no other candidate reaches that number.

It seems all but impossible for an Independent candidate to win in a State that was won by the Democratic or Republican Presidential candidates by 20 points or more.  [135 votes]

It seems very unlikely that an Independent candidate would come through in States that were won by one Democratic or Republican Presidential candidate or another by 15-19 points.  [51 votes]

That leaves 352 electoral votes in States in which the Democratic or Republican Presidential candidates won by an average of 14% points or less.  It is from this group of States that an Independent candidate must find the 270 votes he/she needs to be elected.  [Of that 352 votes, 139 votes are in States which were won by 10-14 points by one Party or the other.]

While it is the case that the minimum number of States required to win the election in the electoral college is 11 (California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas), 3 of those States are probably off the table. For details about each State and the 4 groupings see Addendum 3.

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