The Presidential Race

The Schedule 10 days until the election November 6, 2012 Election Day [This is the last Watch before Election Day] The Presidential Race The debates are over, the race is on its final lap. In 10 days it will be...

The Task Ahead

In these final days of the campaign, the two candidates need to accomplish different tasks. The Romney campaign needs to answer the question that some voters have following his changes of position over the last couple of weeks: “Can I...

The Score – at least as the public polls predict

The following are survey results from media-related polling organizations, Gallup and PEW. [WW tends to find them more consistently reliable. This is not to say that all non-media sources are not reliable. Polls like Democracy Corps and Resurgent Republican are...

Battleground States

Below is a chart of the 9 States which are described as the battleground states. Obama won them all in 2008. Bush won 7 of them in 2004 and 7 of them in 2000. As opposed to the national match...

The Electoral College

Here are cuts at the Electoral College that WW will regularly reprint as wehead toward the Presidential election. 270 Electoral votes are needed to win.   Cook 10/25 Rothenberg 10/12 Wash Post 10/6 Sabatto 10/18 RCP 10/25 Solid/Likely Dem 237...

Who Will Come

Voting has begun in 29 of the 50 States. Keep in mind that the efficacy of likely voter samples is dependent on the “likely voter” model that each poll uses in determining which respondents to be treated as likely voters....

Party ID and Political Ideology

The Winston Group, WW’s favorite Republican pollster, has put together an interesting history of Party ID and Political Ideology. Dave Winston has given WW permission to include the site for this work in the Watch. Go to Winstongroup.net/slides/PartyIDandIdeology.pdf....

The Money

The Romney campaign + the Republican National Committee (RNC) raised $112 million during the first half of October. The Obama campaign+the Democratic National Committee (DNC) raised $90 million during the same period. This brings the Romney+RNC total for the campaign...

Unemployment / Right Direction-Wrong Track

The BLS unemployment rate for September was 7.8%. This is the same as it was in January 2009, when Barack Obama took office. The Gallup survey of the unemployed generally tracks pretty well with the BLS numbers. Its mid-October unemployment...

President Obama

The President’s job approval rating in Gallup on October 2 was 51% approval and 45% disapproval. [Based on a 3-day survey period ending on the 22nd.] The following are several additional cuts at the President’s job approval rating during 2012....

Romney and Obama

Since February 2012, when 38% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of Mitt Romney, his favorability has grown to 52% in mid-October. By the same token, a 50% unfavorability rating in February has fallen to 44% in mid-October. [Gallup]...

The Congress

In the 2nd half of October 21% approve of the job being done by Congress. This is an up ticket from mid-September, when 13% were positive. It is not clear to what extent votes cast in the Presidential contest affect...

The Governors

Of the fifty sitting State governors, 29 are Republicans, 20 are Democrats, and 1 is an Independent. Eight governorships are on the ballot in 2012. Three of those governorships are currently held by Republicans in Indiana, North Dakota, and Utah....

Restaurant: Flying Fig

Cleveland, Ohio: The restaurant is known for being very much a part of the farm-to-table restaurant movement.